AI's Investment Implications


#61

Did you know who Tim Cook is when you went all in with Apple back in the 90s?


#62

I have my sources… yes, obviously :smiley: way before the mainstream news talk about supply chain. By now, you should know I am the type who need evidences especially raw numbers (prefer to make my own assessments, too many illiterate numerated armed chaired marketers around). Btw, not just Tim Cook, also Peter Oppenheimer, supply chain and cost control :slight_smile: twin engines to sustained profit.


#63

I use to subscribe to a few IEEE journals to get an idea of the future… may be time to do that again.


#64

wuqijun,

Did you read the article linked by manch? Did you know Apple (when SJ is still around) bought PA semiconductor in 2008 and now Apple is considered as the largest semi company? Also, from the path that Apple has been taking, many semi are designed in-house which could include… but we don’t know because Apple doesn’t announce until the technology is ready for deployment… Don’t underestimate SJ’s best creation, Apple Inc… There is a good reason why Apple wanted to build an in-house team of semi guys… pundits could get the reasons wrong or shall I say they can only deduce from the products out but not the real motivation…

According to the article, I deduce the next generation of mega cap companies would be in:

AI Semi - NVDA (sold all atm :frowning: ), AMBA (sold all atm), SYNA
Robotics - IRBT :disappointed_relieved:
IoT - UBNT :smiley:
Big data/ cloud computing - SHOP, VEEV, NTNX, SPLK, PANW
May be SHOP and VEEV should be e-commerce?


#65

Yes but I don’t think Apple is the future of EV though, unless it decides to acquire tesla.

And no one knows where the future lies with AI.


#66

Assessment based on your too long ago experience working in Apple or still in contact with your ex-Apple colleagues?


#67

Come on. You will need a factory to manufacture cars. Does Apple have a secret factory somewhere that we are not aware of?

Even if Apple decided to put all its effort into coming up with an EV from scratch, it’s already too late in the ball game. Competitors are far far ahead. Best bet for Apple is to acquire a company if it wants a piece of action in this space.

You don’t need any prior experience working for Apple or keeping in contact with ex-colleagues to figure this out…


#68

Apple was late to PC and smart phone too. EV are still only a tiny percent car sales. It’s the first inning of the game with 90% of the growth ahead. Unlike the rest, Apple has the cash to scale manufacturing. Tesla would have to raise about $6-10B to make 1M cars a year. That’s assuming they actually catch up to the rest of the industry in line rate. Apple can easily spend $50-100B to have capacity to make 5-10M cars a year. Who else can?


#69

I really don’t think anyone at Apple has it in him to make such a leap. EV has been the talk of town for over 5 years. I invested in Tsla more than 5 years ago! Apple is simply not in the business of making cars. It either has no interest or isn’t capable. If it did it would have had something by now. I would bet my money into Google or even Amzn to come up with a car than Apple… even though I don’t believe google or amzn is tasked for that either.


#70

Easy, almost every car manufacturers have an EV :slight_smile:


#71

You’re out of touch.


#72

I don’t think Apple wants to buy GM.


#73

It’s hard to argue Tesla makes EV cars when they make 220 model 3s :slight_smile: I could build them that fast with a small team in 10,000 sq ft warehouse.


#74

That’s 220 more EVs than Apple has made…

With 100 billion in cash they failed to make even 1 EV in 5 years… :wink:


#75

Don’t be upset… time to diversify out of AAPL if you want some action in EV :slight_smile:


#76

That reminded me of Steve Ballmer’s comment about iPhone in 2007, “… right now we are selling millions and millions of phones a year… Apple is selling zero phone…"


#77

I think @marcus335 's comment about the model 3 is more of an analogy to Ballmer’s comment than my statement ever was :rofl:


#78

I am with @wuqijun. Tesla is already the Apple of EV. It has the sex appeal and the star power in Elon Musk. Apple may be able to compete if Steve was still around. Now? No way.

Maybe Apple should do another deal like Next. Have a reverse merger with Tesla and let Elon Musk run Apple. If so AAPL will zoom all the way to 5T. :smile:


#79

Please do!!! :rofl:


#80

So Apple can sell 100,000 phones a year and brag about a 5 year wait list while losing billions a year? Tim Cook is doing ok on his own.