Any takers of NVDA or UBNT or TSLA (not now)


#21

I dont get much time to track stock market these days… so take my advice for what’s its worth.

I am bullish on TSLA. People focusing on cashflow, range, status are missing the point. TSLA has world’s best brains working. Contrast that with the incumbents who have stereotypical people living in midwest who can’t find better jobs (no offense to anyone, just an exaggeration to drive the point).

All these smart people will create the safest (already), operationally exceptional (not yet), and cheapest to manufacture (not yet) cars. Just wait and watch. Model3 has 1.5Km of wiring compared to >3Km for model-S. These guys will use best of science while others deal with union jobs.

People who use autopilot on Tesla say it’s spooky how well it works… In my best case scenario, all European and American car companies will go BK in 10 years while Asians languish… just like it happened with phones.


#22

Analysts rescue NVDA


#23

Invest in the person! Forget about sales, revenue, profit, business model, product. If you like the person, just invest.

Actually, if you don’t know anything at all, you can still invest! Analysis is futile :slight_smile:


#24

I have no doubts about this but this only address the product. For long term profitability and success, a hardware company needs to have a very good supply chain. It seems Tesla has trouble scaling up and cost control. I notice he talks about improving the tools that make the product, that is really Apple strategy.

Why supply chain is critical? Allow me to use Apple as an example. When SJ took over Apple in 1997, Apple makes $7 B annually and lost over $1B. After Tim Cook is brought onboard to take care of supply chain, in 1998, Apple makes $6 B and turns in a profit of $309k. In 1999, annual revenue about $6B, profit $601k. In 2000, $8B, profit $786k. This is to illustrate the importance of supply chain, not due to short-term cost cutting of HR and closing down of projects.


#25

Elon Musk is a visionary, a genius. Who is the supply chain guru in Tesla?


#26

Couldn’t agree with you more. But guess what - say you are a Tim Cook today in 2017… you are probably a mid level manager somewhere. Which company are you going to join? GM or TSLA?

In 2027, people might be posting similar comments about John Doe who fixed the supply chain of TSLA… it’s rear view mirror.


#27

Tim Cook will eventually leave Apple and take up job as COO of Telsa, reporting to Elon :slight_smile:


#28

[quote=“bugmenot, post:26, topic:1746”]
…similar comments about Joe Dane who fixed the supply chain of TSLA…
[/quote]Sascha Zahnd is the current supply chain guru in Tesla. Who is Joe Dane? Is this a saying to mean something? Please enlighten.

Btw, I follow Apple close enough then to know that Tim Cook and Peter Oppenheimer (CFO then, might not be yet, too lazy to check) are doing a very good job in cost control. Not following Tesla that closely, so need some inputs from you guys. CFO Tesla just resigned? He joined Tesla in 2015. Change in CFO so often is a red flag.


#29

A placeholder name… point is we dont know the future visionary yet. Sascha Zahnd has great profile, who knows he may be the one. In this week’s conf call, Musk described how it was difficult for TSLA to attract good suppliers in past and it’s getting better.


#30

Wishful dream


#31

Hedge funds short NVDA like crazy


#32

When Tesla announced model 3 production targets, the two VPs responsible for making it happen resigned.

Musk gets way too much credit for PayPal. He ran the company for under a year before he was fired. Thiel had to step in to run and save it.

Musk has only been successful at convincing investors to give him money. He has no clue how to build a profitable business. I have no idea why investors keep giving him money when he keeps failing to achieve operational goals. I guess if someone is charismatic enough then nothing else matters.


#33

Yes!

Also, Musk saved PayPal with his money. Without his cash infusion PayPal would’ve gone under before it became a success.


#34

I’ve read about it. It was really the banking ID number. They realized they needed one and didn’t have it. It took about 8 months to get one. Musk had one, so they bought his company. They likely would have run out of money without finishing a product without the banking ID number.


#35

Speaking of PayPal, I always hated PayPal. One of the worst UX ever. Left to its own device I doubt PayPal would have survived without EBay (another shitty company) buying it. I don’t get why people worship PayPal…


#36

They have good web tools. They write the code to create a subscription button on your website. You can setup subscription frequency and cost. Their fees are cheaper than doing the same with a credit card.

I think the original hype was a person could instantly send money to another person. Now there are other options.


#37

I do not go that much detail on valuation. I may be wrong not doing it or in future I may try that.

However, NVDA less than $100, TSLA under $200 and UBNT under $50 is as attractive as Apple under $100. I did the same thing with QCOM and IRBT,

Any analysts downgrade that brings these stocks, 15% or more, are opportunity for me, esp with bullish economy going on now.


#38

Isn’t Tesla’s FCF negative? If you used FCF to value it the number should be zero?


#39

To my knowledge worship does not play any role ! In investment or business, it is the profitability that is attractive. Paypal active accounts are increasing as they are better secured than credit transaction, easy online purchases.

Until paypal was attached with Ebay, Amazon was out of touch (as ebay and amzn are competitor ). Now, Amazon - paypal tie up started. This will increase PYPL dramatic change in active users and volume of trade.

Assume every customer pays 3% to paypal. The future of PAYPAL is too bright.

BTW: I own them, viewer must do their own research, not depend on my statements.


#40

I do not how it works. If analysts downgrade brings TSLA to any near 200 range, I will buy it this time. I missed the last time at 180 range as I purchased AMZN at $750.