Be afraid: China is on the path to global technology dominance


#121

Are you two doing a talk show?

USA seems to be moving in the same direction as the native Americans, towards isolation. Asians/ Europeans need to come back in 1-2 centuries later and annihilate them easily. May be we should rename America continent as the Land of the Doom. The only bright spot is tech industry… so long this industry is not dim… could re-spark…

From history, we knew civilizations rise and fall… so nothing to see here.


#122

Yes, America is a sinking ship. But the Chinese boat is still too primitive to hop over. So we really don’t have a choice but to stay on a sinking ship…


#123

Need to wait for China to replace some of the old habits with European ideas. A system for ensuring quality, authenticity and trust of products and services. I’m hoping Alibaba could spark that revolution.


#124

Then why don’t you buy BABA stock :slight_smile:


#125

Wanted to but… always have the same problem… why should I sell AAPLs? Buy a couple of lot is child play… talking about…


#126

Why don’t you borrow on margin if you don’t want to swap stocks or don’t have the cash. I think you should buy at least a good chunk, like $100k worth of BABA.


#127

You can borrow $500k margin and buy $100k each of BABA, BIDU, FB, GOOG, and TSLA. I think that is better than keep buying properties in Austin.


#128

Good advice. I’m not :joy: the decision maker of the household, only an advisor.
In any case, that defeat the goal of diversification: capital preservation. Overexposed to tech industry, Austin’s economy is not just tech… a Capital, a music scene, an university…


#129

What? That’s sad…


#130

Yes but Austin is in America, so you are investing everything in America. And America is a sinking ship. That is not diversification. That is putting all your eggs in one basket that’s about to hit rocky ground…


#131

Actually, I have considered, Vancouver, Toronto, London, Australia (certain cities), New Zealand (certain cities) :grin: Not familiar with China, need you to tell me :joy: Shenzhen, Tianjin, Suzhou? You’ve forgotten I have some in Singapore. However, I realize many current booming cities are struggling to remain relevant in the future. Many seems to have peaked and coming down (but still doing very well so is not obvious).


#132

I wonder about China too. Although, I remember when Japan was supposed to pass us by, and that never happened. Still, 100+ years as the word’s biggest economy is a long run. I honestly think India is more of a long-term threat. They are more software oriented than China.


#133

I am bearish on India. On paper it should do well, but it doesn’t. A country that still struggles with basic infrastructures like roads and electricity is hard to be bullish about. Their political system is a mess, governments a model of red tape, and legal system hopelessly bogged down.

The only way for a country to rise up is thru manufacturing and exports, i.e. the East Asian model. Only a tiny slice of population, maybe 0.01% in India’s case, have the training and IQ to be a software dev. What about the 99.99%? You need something for them to bootstrap to middle class. With the world moving to automation the window is closing fast. So poor countries may never get the chance to be the next China.

The last country to squeak thru is Vietnam. I won’t mind holding some real estate there actually. Many Chinese factory owners moved production there to take advantage of cheap labor. It has 92M people so it’s actually a pretty big country, 1/4 the size of US.


#134

Yes, India is not a threat. It is a disaster. Although not as big a disaster as Africa or the Middle East.

I am also not very bullish about Vietnam. Although not very bearish either. I am the most bullish about North Korea. North Koreans are just as smart as South Koreans. Once that government is out of the way productivity will explode through the roof.


#135

Your description of India sounds a lot like California :slight_smile:


#136

#137

Tencent is probably China’s most innovative firm. It’s way more innovative than Facebook, its closest analog in the West. This article is an insightful look into WeChat’s growth strategy:

I just wish Tencent had more of an international mind. That’s the problem with all the Chinese internet companies. They just don’t seem that interested or capable to expand internationally. So it’s probably up to Facebook to copy WeChat’s strategy. And so far it’s doing a pretty bad job.


#138

They are behaving like early American auto companies. Hopefully they wake up or face similar consequence. Jack Ma is wiser :slight_smile:


#139

They don’t seem capable to expand internationally because they are not there yet. They will be there one of these days so we should be well prepared for that. The best way to do so is to buy Chinese internet stocks right now.


#140

Only two companies worth buying, Alibaba and Tencent.