Bitcoin Bubble


#603

Very real because real money changed hands.


#604

These are real money! Debt + money spent on equipment are real money!!!


#605

That is not what I mean. Please read my wording carefully. Manch completely miss the point. So is John.
If still don’t understand, blame my English, too tired to keep saying the same thing. May be someone who understand, can articulate better. It seems wuqjjun understood, ask wuqijun to articulate in another way.
Read carefully the wordings.

The real money is $12M + effort to generate the coins + maintaining the ledger which are ignored for simplicity.
The fake money is $120B less above real money.
When BTC = 0, only $12M + whatever are lost. Not $120B as many journalists love to claim.
Of course, some of which can be real if being used as collateral :slight_smile: … I’m not trying to be comprehensive here… merely pointing out the impact is not as big as what journalists claim.


#606

I don’t think this real vs fake distinction is meaningful. If say Apple stock goes all the way to zero. How much money is lost? Is it 900B or something less than that?

For you who just leave the stock in the account and not borrow against it or touch it in anyway, ie not converting to so-called real money aka USD, are you losing the fake stock or something real?

Similarly for someone with 1M in bitcoin that now worth nothing. How much does he lose?

Value is whatever the market is willing to give. There is no real vs fake. Everything is real. In fact I think bitcoin is more real than Apple stocks. There are bitcoin atm around you can deposit or withdraw.


#607

Whatever he has initially invested (cash + effort).
Haha, obviously you didn’t read my wordings carefully.
I believe bitcoin is not mainstream enough to worry about the hidden fake converted to real situations such as margin against stocks, borrowing your shares by brokerage, collateral for borrowing, etc.


#608

So your Apple stock is just worth the initial cost basis to you?


#609

Did you read the wordings carefully?
Not trying to insult you, please read up on valuation of asset such as oil reserves.
Do you know the difference between revenue generating/ income producing assets and commodity class asset?


#610

Bitcoin already have etfs. There are bitcoin atms around the world. Soon there will be futures trading. How much more real do you want it to get?


#611

I think I am tired. You don’t understand what were said. Just blame my English and inability to articulate.
You are already circulating back to the point I have mentioned earlier.


#612

Technology is real. The coin is real. But the price is going to crash.


#613

#614

In January 1970, an ounce of silver was traded at an average of $6.08 Over the course of the decade, the silver price doubled, an understandable phenomenon considering that the U.S. dollar decoupled from the price of gold in 1971. However, in 1979, the price of silver began to explode, and by the end of the year, it had more than quadrupled. In January 1980, silver reached an all-time high of $49.45 — $111.84 in today’s dollars — after which it began a prolonged decline that ultimately saw it bottom out at $4.05 in 2001.


#615

That’s why having bitcoin futures is so dangerous. It creates a lot of contagion risks. If you looked back at the housing bust at first people said it’s only subprime how bad can it be? Your housing price is only paper money not real anyway. Well look at what happened.


#616

That is correct. I think is what manch is arguing for which I agree with him is real.


#617

It’s like playing penny stocks. Someone touts it, you buy it, you have to sell it before the price collapses. if you sell it at the right you makes money. Otherwise you don’t.


#618

Maybe January 2018 will mark its peak?


#619

If that’s the case, buy today and sell in January


#620

I’m an investor not a speculator. Investors buy and hold for the long term.

Also, you should consider selling yours right now in case it peaked early.


#621

Yes very dangerous. This is making fake real. Worse, can amplify real too. Long ago, back of envelope computation show real is amplified because of such derivatives. Using Apple’s market cap of $900B, the affected real money is more than $900B, could be $1T, $1.8T or $3T (figures are made up for impact, didn’t do any computations) because of futures, options, margin and whatever phony instruments based on AAPL.

Because people underestimate the multiplier effect. I called that “fake make real” money… may be I should copyright the terms :slight_smile: Mortgages, HELOCs, and similar make the house prices very real. It could be considered “paper” only if the house is full paid with no mortgage in which case whatever the price of the house won’t impact the owner (assuming not selling forever).


#622

A major correction can’t be far off. This is getting hysterical.