Bitcoin Bubble


#623

This storm needs to pull all novice investors money before crash. BTC may even reach $50000 Mark !!

I am guessing bitcoin euphoria will go good until Jan 2019 !


#624

#625

I feel like it may take a recession for bitcoin to crash. That or an event that shakes people’s confidence, so they need/want to sell the bitcoin for cash. When that happens, the supply/demand dynamic will change. You’ll have more sellers than buyers. The markets aren’t regulated. There are no circuit breaker rules. You’ll get crazy price instability which will cause more panic selling.

Short of a major event that causes people to want spendable cash, I think it keeps going higher.


#626

Well, if the pricing chart is going up vertically like this then it cannot last until 2019.


#627

Bitcoin crash is imminent. If it does take a recession for it to crash then I’m afraid the recession is already upon us…


#628

I don’t think there needs to be any major event to trigger the slide. Any random pedestrian thing can trigger the stampede. Look back at all the bubbles before. If there were recession involved, it will be because of bitcoin bubble bursting therefore we have a recession, not the other way around.


#629

Actually bitcoin market share is not currently big enough to cause a recession. So it’s either a recession causing bitcoin to crash, or something else causing it to crash (it crashed in 2014 without any recession occurring).


#630

Then bitcoin better crash soon. It will not just be bitcoin though, but all cryptos together. I can’t imagine only bitcoin crashes but ether continues to go up. They all go together.

Subprime loans were also a small portion of all mortgage loans. I still remember vividly people brushing it off as a small thing. Turns out it’s the 2nd Great Depression.


#631

Well, maybe I am wrong. Most other cryptos are going down but bitcoin is going up. Really up.

All cryptos together now worth 394B.


#632

This could be related to the coming Bitcoin futures


#633


#634

BAGB,

Since you have bought bitcoin, is there a way to see what is the worth of actual bitcoin changing hands?
The circulating supply of 16,725,000 is the amount of BTC mined, is not the value of transactions amongst people.

marcus,

What I said about derivatives is highlighted in your chart, “In 2007, securities issued exceeded originations”. I find that the worth of all derivatives of a stock can be more than the market cap of the stock. Is the reason why I really hate funds of funds, options (I was joining in since I can stop it :slight_smile: ) and futures, and hope that these instruments are banned. These instruments amplified the collapse of a stock, and is so convoluted that is hard to know its extent.


#635

You can see the worldwide volume here. 3B for Bitcoin. 8B for all a day.

https://www.worldcoinindex.com/coin/bitcoin


#636

Yes, like this stage, bitcoin craziness has to come.

Whether it is exponential or sinusoidal wave, I really see this will go for another 12 - 18 time frame before cryptocrash happens.

This year, bitcoin went up 1000% exponentially, next year 500% to 700% is possible as lot of people will be sucked into this craziness.

Why everyone is enable or ready to accept bitcoin? This is going crazy and they accept to barter trade with bitcoin. Think of a situation, it is falling down. At that time, do these pizza shops accept bitcoin? They will ban/block bitcoin barter.

In order to get such situation, everyone one BTC buyers needs to fill up their credit cards, helocs, line of credit…all short term credits must be filed.

This takes almost 12 months from now. Then it may begin to crash any time after 12 months.It can even happen before but my guess is 12-18 months.


#637

I think 12 months is too long. I’m just doing a technical analysis based on the chart. Anything that has flatlined for 3 years and then gone exponential within a year is just asking for a crash. What exactly happened between last year and this year? No new technology surrounding crypto emerged. Still the same thing except 20x more expensive. Something is going to have to give…


#638

Blockchain course on Coursera:


#639

Coinbase allows you to buy with credit card, this is different than stocks. If Bitcoin goes to the moon, they can sell some coin to pay back. If Bitcoin crashes, they just stop paying credit card and ruin their credit.

At some point, credit card company may ban buying bitcoins with credit card.

Credit card use is a risk, but not sure what percentage is bought with credit card.

Now with the futures and the coming ETF or other kind of investment vehicle, more people can get involved in Bitcoin from their stock account. It could still be a long way to go before it peaks


#640

Crypto may have false crashes that become crest and trough, but real crash - once for all everyone running away from bitcoin - will happen after 12 months or at least 9 months minimum.


#641

It could crash in many ways. But most likely straight down 50% of its value gone. And I think the peak is very near… I’m speculating the beginning of next year.


#642

How are you preparing for that?
For example, are you closing all your stock position? Sell some houses to reduce leverage?
I don’t know how to prepare so no change to deal with all changes, 以不变应万变