Campbell, Santa Clara and San Jose


#21

How much would that house be worth? 1.5?

Cap rate is super low…


#22

House prices in San Jose decline 10-15% as compared to Spring prices.


#23

wow, Do you have any link or data that points it?


#24

Agreed. That seems like a lot. Redfin shows San Jose as up from last year & flat from last month.


#25

Not good to use macro data. Use specific data.

2631 Meta Dr San Jose 95130, 3Br/2Ba 1539 on 6363 lot, sold for $1.32 mil on Jul 17, 2015.
2635 Meta Dr San Jose 95130, 3Br/2Ba 1802 on 6262, sold for $1.188 mil on Jul 27, 2016.

From photos, the latter house appears to be in a better condition.


#26

Well, to be fair who is to say that the first house wasn’t actually oversold in the first place? Any singular house could be an outlier. I would have to agree that to make general remarks about an area you gotta have a decent/large sampling of home sales data in that area to make any sense of the market conditions in that area.


#27

Was showing one example for illustration. I have checked more than 10 houses. Chose those two because I had visited their open houses and they are along the same road.


#28

Sam, Blaney is busy street, one car in two to three minutes. Parents with kids may not prefer by the busy traffic. Then it take a dip on rent. Otherwise, Cupertino school district Rents are at 4k level.


#29

10% lower price for nearly 20% more sqft… I’ve posted in another thread that I observed a 10% correction in the $2m segment for SFR in Sunnyvale (94087). 10% drop between 12/2015 and 6/2016. No prediction for the future.


#30

Specific examples for 94087 (Sunnyvale),

728 Lois Ave Sunnyvale 94087 3Br/2Ba 1762 on 6300 sold for $1.48 mil on Aug 11, 2016.
745 Melon St Sunnyvale 94087 3Br/2Ba 1738 on 5600 sold for $1.59 mil on Apr 7, 2016.
1283 Heather stone Way Sunnyvale 94087 3Br/2Ba 1503 on 5600 sold for $1.602 mil on Nov 7, 2015.


#31

These are excellent examples of competition reduced from multiple offers to slower competition.

If interest rate is increased, market falls heavily, we will see major difference.
How much % or when will happen like that? No one knows.


#32

Are you all holding off buying until November elections


#33

The decline could be temporary due to Brexit. If something come up at this price, I think I would commit. I didn’t bid for those houses because I thought seller want more… should have lowballed.


#34

$1.6m is still a lot for a house that was $800k in 2009. I think it still has room to come down but not all the way to $800k again (damn it!).


#35

Pre-2009, my realtor suggested me buy either Mountain View or Sunnyvale. I did not realize at that time and skipped many good homes at that time!

Google, Facebook, Apple,Netflix…etc companies recovered/came up and billions poured into these companies. This changed those cities.

Across bay area, many cities, homes were doubled between 2009 and 2016. We can not compare the 2009 prices any more.


#36

You have a good realtor. Mine suggest to buy Milpitas and Tracy. Too far for me.
Prices in MV and Sunnyvale appreciates faster than PA, Cupertino and Los Altos.


#37

This was not about brexit impact, but

  1. Chinese economic down fall ( overall 40% ??)
  2. Oil correction (It came down 78%)
  3. Tech & Biotech stocks impact in Jan/Feb 2016 aftermath of Dec 2015 increase 0.25% in interest rate.

Here are the S&P returns

2015 1.30%
2014 13.81%
2013 32.43%
2012 15.88%
2011 2.07%
2010 14.87%
2009 27.11%
2008 -37.22%

If FED has not stopped raising rate, we would have got a severe impact like the one Senseamp expected.


#38

She has around 50 years in real estate and has many multiplexes in Sunnyvale, Mountain View and she bought primary at Saratoga pre-2000 time.


#39

[quote=“Jil, post:35, topic:384, full:true”]

Maybe but we have had a tremendous amount of appreciation in a short time. Boom = Bust. I bet those $1.6m homes in Sunnyvale will be $1.3m at some point in the next 3 years.

@Jil is right. The FED saved the US from a correction by not raising rates but we are overdue for a correction. At some point in the near future, they will begin rate hikes again and the stock market and real estate will be impacted.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-charts-show-why-market-may-be-ripe-for-a-correction-2016-08-23


#40

Normal rates are a long way off. Everyone is drunk on low rates. Ending the party now would cause an epic hangover. It’d destroy the US government, state and local governments, and corporations. There’s a lot of hype about how much cash corporations have. The top 25 have most of it. Most corporations have far more debt than cash. If rates go up, they’d get killed issuing new debt when the existing debt matures.