Dow Down 666 Points

stocks

#661

His high can Nvidia go? Seems to me it can at most go 2x to 300B. The highest Intel ever went was back in 2000 when it reached just north of 500B. Adjusted for inflation it’s something like 600 to 700? Will a semiconductor company ever go that high again? Maybe if we had an AI bubble?

Nvidia is an 10x stock that got away. :cry:


#662

So you think MU can be $500B company? Memory only? Can memory be AI-ed?
Can you set up a company to design a memory chip that have AI built-in?
Would invest $100k :slight_smile:


#663

No I don’t think micron can 10x. At best in the 200B range and even that is difficult.


#664

Change it back. :smile:

Just realize @myo also shows his face. So now we have 4 people.


#665

Haha, I go back and forth. Too boring to stick with one.


#666

How come this thread is so dead? Where’s all the doom and gloom?

@jil? @terri? @elt1? Come on people!!! :rofl:

Black Monday anyone??? :rofl:


#667

People will post when there is a drop. Relax :slight_smile:


#668

Oops I just realized that I posted the 666th response on a topic with “666” in it… Could be a bad omen… black monday must be coming soon!!! :rofl::rofl::rofl:


#669

If you are a long term holder/investor, do you still review daily stock fluctuations? If you do, you are not a Long term investor.

In my thread I said wait until Mar 15th or Mar 31st. Let us sync on Mar 31st, until then any fluctuation in stock market is common.

In fact, long hold investor think years ahead, not even looking at daily drops/hikes.


#670

Wow… @jil teaching me a lesson to be a long term investor… who would’ve thought… :rofl:

You made it sound as if you have a crystal ball that can see right into March… okie dokie… do as you please… :rofl:


#671

I think February, 28th we’ll get a good indication of what will happen in March. That’s when the new fed chair testifies before congress. One thing the fed has shown is a lack of willingness to surprise markets with a rate hike if it’s not already priced into the market.


#672

I can write more why I decided to pull out of Long term investing (I May be right/wrong), but you may not like my reasoning as you are a believer of long hold.

Here you go:

Even though FED raised interest rate last 4 times, only short term notes, less than 3 months, got rate hike in line with FED rate hikes.Until Jan 2018, nothing is reflected in long term treasuries like 10, 20, 30 year, but recently it is getting reflected.

Let us review why now? Until now, FED was buying MBS and other bond buying programs regularly. Even after QE money printing stopped, FED was reusing its return back into market. Since FED money is used, lenders (service providers) just marked up 1%-1.25% service fee which was low until Oct 2017.

From oct 2017, FED started rewinding QE money and started gradual increase in QE rewinding programs as given below.

When FED removed its support from Oct 2017, all lenders needs to source from outside market and that increased recent bond pricing hikes.

Going forward, FED rewinding increases every qtr to qtr, and also FED plans to hike the rates 3 times in 2018 and 2 times in 2019.

In short, money supply reduces and rates (ST and LT) gets increased.

So far market was execuberant about money flow and people were speculative (including bitcoin craziness) on getting higher returns than fundamentals.

When long term rates are increased, it affects mortgages, REITs, company finances (most of the companies run on credits, except cash rich companies). In short, bond prices hiked that will reflect on the profit margins of company results.

Last week, down drop 1175 and 1032 may be a forwarning for us as some of the wallstreet firms shedding big amount silently and impacts across the market.

IMO, the new FED chief will also continue to follow the same policy, esp rate hikes and QE rewinding, as usual.The market may be volatile until next FED meeting and then may be 15 days after the FED meeting is over.

In the long run, say one or two years, we will have reduction in profit margins of companies as the credit economy has the domino effect.Most of the cash rich companies, like GOOGL, may take one time tax payment, bring money to USA, buyback/invest when prices are lowest (They do not buyback when peak!)
Market makers such as wallstreet firms shed big holdings or shorting in between. When this happens all the stock market FATs will go off and only real fundamentals (not speculative) remain healthy and survive.

With this uncertainty, we will have major upswings in market until Mar middle, but chances are there for further fall in market prices.

Markets are made by WS firms, Investment Banks, Mutual Funds…etc, but not by individual investors like me, you or some mom/pop investors. When WS is acting, we can not withstand the force as they take away our money.

This is my own analysis/reasoning, believing or ignoring left to the forum viewers.

I may be right or wrong, but I hope that I will get a clarity by Mar end. I am ready to absorb the losses or gain of my own decision and I am used to this kind of decision in the past.


#673

I think you are the antithesis of a long term investor, @jil. I hope you can have more endurance when it comes to holding on to your real estate. :wink:


#674

I am a long term speculator.


#675

oxymoron? :smile:


#676

As @Jil stated, this is why I say RE investing is better for the average Joe or Jane to build wealth. My own contractor, a one time illegal immigrant, is now sitting on a fair amount of home equity. Someone like this simply would not have made that same amount from stocks.


#677

I believe in fundamentals, to a certain degree. I am always ready to admit I am wrong. Ultimately I am very humble towards the market.


#678

Ho Ho Ho! I am officially up for the year again! :smile:


#679

No one should act arrogant towards the market, thinking that they have a crystal ball.


#680

So fast? I’m still down a notch.