I do believe Petroleum+Diesel(oil) will be in a secular decline in the future as the share of Transport in Oil use is @65% today vs mid@40% in mid 1960s(Point is those %s increased and hence past is not future and can see an opposite trend going forward if there is a replacement technology ). I do see this share coming down. By how much and what % we will know a trend in 10 years.
Everyone’s situation is different. ==>I agree. If the NW or revenue stream is higher than some level, it is not worth spending or looking at these avenues…From your previous statement itself, I understood.
The equity correction was also marked by an exodus from stocks. According to the BofA survey, equity allocation fell to net 43% in February from 55% overweight in January, the largest one-month decline in two years, according to the investment bank. Meanwhile, the percentage of investors who have put on protection against “a sharp fall in equity markets” saw its biggest one-month jump on record.
Bought back most short puts (BTC puts), left only NTNX and VEEV puts …
Also, doing call replacements for most counters.
Defensive Outcome: Reduce gain if rally continues. Able to buy counters very cheap if correction turns into a bear market.
Oil consumption will keep going up, for at least the next ten years… And probably for my lifetime…Oil has plenty of uses besides cars…And maybe 10% of cars will be electric in 10 years…Plastics and all kinds of new synthetics and fabrics use petrochemicals…
@wuqijun, I agree that I am wrong in my analysis, resumed investing, but different stocks, bought XOM,BP, TEVA (buffet). I see these at low end. Since buffet bought TEVA, I follow him.
Trump tax issue and reducing in EPS are the issues for XOM & BP
The gas tax will never pass. Hurt XOM for a couple hours but anxiety will go away. Californians already swallowed a gas tax increase with little effect. I like oil stocks because the higher the price the more oil companies make. It is a necessity and inflation insurance like gold.
In the seventies when oil prices doubled inflation went 10%. Now prices are affected a lot less by oil. $100/b oil will not hurt the economy but will make oil stocks go up 50%
I haven’t checked yet. There are two Costcos in Tijuana, about seven milies from where I live. There are signs on the freeway that say expect delays crossing the border, but I don’t know how long. If its a long wait it might not be worth it. I did find out that dental work is 50% off in Mexican dental clinics. I have an appointment to get mine done.