Dow Down 666 Points

Are you sure? Sure enough that you can recommend people to long AMZN calls?

He lacks tact :slight_smile: and compassion :rofl:

1 Like

I don’t recall ever recommending trades to people. It’s always meant to be a discussion.

I bought another 5 FB calls this morning.

Strike, month?

All my calls are Jan 2020. Strikes are 170, 175 and 180.

1 Like

OTM :rage: Thought everyone agree to buy DITM.

This is almost like buying FB stocks !

I have been buying on the way down.

What do you mean?

I use options only as a cheaper alternative to buy stocks, so I can use my money to buy something else. I stick to in-money or near-money.

1 Like

The only issue with options close to the current price is almost 100% of the option price is for the time premium (theta). You can be right about the stock increasing in value, but if the increase is less than your time premium then it’s a losing trade. I don’t like to set myself up where a stock needs to move 20-30% before I break even.

That’s why I’ve gone to deep ITM calls, so my time premium is very close to zero. If you go 3-4 months out, you’ll still get 2-5x leverage vs. buying the stock. The amount of leverage depends on the implied volatility of the stock. The more volatility the less leverage you’ll get. With deep ITM calls, you’ll have less 10x+ winning trades, but you’ll also have less losing trades and the losses are smaller.

Deep ITM calls also protect you if the stock goes sideways and does nothing. You didn’t pay for time premium, so you’ll break even. If you’re paying for time premium, you’ll lose all that value as the stock goes sideways.

Facebook $165 July calls are $14.31. $3.15 of that is the current price above strike and the rest is time premium. 78% of what you’re buying is the time premium which will go to zero if Facebook doesn’t move. It needs to increase by over $11.16 (6.6%) just to break even.

The $120 call is $48.75 so the time premium is $0.60. You’re still getting 3.4x leverage vs buying the stock, and it only needs to go up by $0.60 (0.3%) to break even. You’re not getting the 11.7x leverage of the $165 calls, but you also have a much better chance of success. Since the deep ITM call has almost no time premium, you can sell OOM shorter dated calls against it. The disadvantage of doing that with an ATM call is you risk getting called away from your remaining time premium.

3 Likes

I will sell my LEPAs 6 months ahead of expiration, and theoretically there should still be a lot of time premium left, even if it’s out-of-money. That gives me almost 18 months. I don’t think Facebook should have much trouble going way beyond $180 in that timeframe. Otherwise I should still be able to recoup some of my investments selling the remaining time premium.

1 Like

Yup, the time premium decay is the most rapid the last month.

If you buy 2 year call, you are forced to sell or excise it before expiry. I hate the time decay of options, that put me into trouble.

If you go for stocks, you can hold it for longer duration, years together. I agree the negative side is we need to pay full price.

Yes, buy and hold stocks is the way to go.

1 Like

Even though I know this truth, I am not holding more than year. It is hard to find the companies at the early stage, needs lot of patience to hold and grow.

If you are not willing to hold more than a year, it is not possible to achieve the illusive 10x gain.

1 Like

Just buy etf calls at the next down turn. You might actually get there.

Oh boy…no wonder the insurance companies make a killing using options.

They may know more than some individuals I know. :smile:

Got to keep this forum busy. :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes:

I already got there with Apple and Tsla. Only a matter of time for a few other stocks. All buy and hold nothing fancy. You want outsized gain, you need patience. A get rich quick mentality with options might be tempting but also unreliable and unrealistic.

1 Like

Evidence?

I posted so much! (bank account, flips, purchases)… Will not share anymore unless you show us your prized possession… :slightly_smiling_face:

1 Like