The reason for guess:
FED has applied four times rate hikes so far. Every one, including companies and individual is shouldering the impact already. Companies will face profit margin hit.
Most of the businesses are importing as all US companies made USA as marketing place rather than producing here ! Trump is adding tariff after tariff on imports, almost 25%, which will nullify all the tax reduction corporations got now.
Economy is already down 10%. Falling is easy, but going up is slow. It takes at least 6 months to recover the 10% lost so far, but there will be two more rate hike by that time.
If SP500 does not go up back 5% within next 45 days, there is no chance for the next wave up as we will reach Jun FED meeting for another rate hike.
Then Oct and Dec rate hikes, by that time SP500 may likely sink another 10% which gets us into recessionary cycle.
Again, my own guess, it may be right or wrong.