Dow Down 666 Points

stocks

#1487

Truncated fifth wave is very rare😀 Need to monitor closely. Btw, did you pay attention many wave fives of different degrees might be completed, is not good, it means the decline could be pretty low and long😰 in other words, RE would follow down severely.

Read a few books. Neely and the standard frost book. Seldom check time because hard to guess.


#1488

The reason for guess:

  1. FED has applied four times rate hikes so far. Every one, including companies and individual is shouldering the impact already. Companies will face profit margin hit.

  2. Most of the businesses are importing as all US companies made USA as marketing place rather than producing here ! Trump is adding tariff after tariff on imports, almost 25%, which will nullify all the tax reduction corporations got now.

  3. Economy is already down 10%. Falling is easy, but going up is slow. It takes at least 6 months to recover the 10% lost so far, but there will be two more rate hike by that time.

If SP500 does not go up back 5% within next 45 days, there is no chance for the next wave up as we will reach Jun FED meeting for another rate hike.

Then Oct and Dec rate hikes, by that time SP500 may likely sink another 10% which gets us into recessionary cycle.

Again, my own guess, it may be right or wrong.


#1489

Stock market is down 10%. The economy is still growing.


#1490

All eyes on earning season. If earnings blew everyone out of the water stocks can climb out of this Trump hole.

If not… :scream:


#1491

Down 13% YTD or from all time high? My portfolio is down 9% from all time high, but only down 3% YTD.


#1492

Down 13% YTD.


#1493

I thought you were up 9% a few days ago. A 20% fluctuation within a week? Too much volatility.


#1494

No. From down 9 to down 13.


#1495

Oh… that makes sense.


#1496

Buy Real Estate and sleep at night…otherwise you are up at 2am worried about the stock market…something that which you have absolutely no control over…


#1497

The problem is not stock market, he is using excessive margin. I have no problem sleeping at night with a stock portfolio that is likely bigger than manch’s. I have no margin. I don’t even bother to monitor AAPLs.


#1498

If your portfolio is big and you bought years ago then it doesn’t matter…As far as margin…thats a young man’s game…Not ever going to sleep at night with margin calls waiting…


#1499

Not only margin issue, but options additional pressure as options are volatile, high risk, high reward side. Options work best when stocks are going up, but some options won’t work when it is going down.

You AAPL, wuqijun’s FB or TSLA are frozen forever unless they go to bankruptcy stage…


#1500

Option is margin :grinning: and amplifies change, obvious? All stocks are volatile now, any leverage would amplify that volatility.


#1501

The good thing about stocks is that you don’t have a pissed tenant threatening to sue you like it is with real estate. You hold all the cards when it comes to the law and you can sue the companies that did you wrong.


#1502

Any not so smart guy out there?

“All of which has dented Trump’s reputation as the stock market president.”

Trade%20war%20bazooka


#1503

No ideal investment hence mixed :dog2:


#1504

The turmoil has damaged Trump’s ranking when it comes to equity returns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 32 percent rally during his first year gave him the third-best start by a president going back more than 100 years. But tack on the turmoil since January and he drops to the middle of the pack, behind former Presidents Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush.


#1505

Who are going to sue for the 13% drop. Trump?
Stocks are passive investments. I doubt an individual can achieve any satisfaction with a lawsuit. I am like you I buy stocks for the long term. Not going to sweat this years volatility. In fact just using it for a buying opportunity. Need to lighten my work load. Plan to sell real estate assets slowly over the next 20 years and convert to stocks, trust deeds and syndicate deals.


#1506

Everybody listen up!!! If even @Elt1 is planning to convert RE into stocks, you know which side you should be on in this stock or real estate debate.