Market was sagging after Dec 2015 rate hike for 6-8 months. This is what we witnessed so far. Based on my previous offers, I see clearly it has picked up last three months.
If no rate hike, we can expect market to go up. This is what going to happen in 2017 as I do not see that FED can raise the rates now.
2017 will be blockbuster good, so says Benioff.
But SFHS are still going upā¦Still a sellers market.
http://blog.shiningstarfunding.com/bay-area-county-homes-sales-report-september-2016/
Always seemed obvious to me that high density can easily have glut, but SFH much more robust ā they can only build high volume out n the exurbs
I think Q3 GDP will be between -0.5% to 0.5%. We could see a contraction from everyone hitting pause during such a contentious election cycle.
Next 5-7 years, you will see growth in USA. Wait and see 2017 ! If I guess right, FED will not touch rate hike unless DOW touches 19000 ! They will act after it cross 19000 solid way.
Why 19000?
SFH price continues to go up, rents are falling >>>> cap rate is dropping, soā¦
Short-term flipping could still be profitable but risk is increased.
Buying for rental yield is likely to have a negative cashflow for a while so you need to have other income elsewhere to withstand a long period of negative cashflow.
Buy and hold aka fearless leaderās approach, ahem, guess he has tons of money flowing in.
Weāve had near zero rates for years now. Europe has too. Both our growth rates suck. Our high growth days are done. Weāre very unlikely to see 4%+ GDP growth again unless we dramatically reduce regulations and tax rates. The market is divorced from the economy thanks to interest rates making bonds so unappealing. People are using dividend paying stocks to replace bond investments. Earnings have been declining year-year since Q1ā15, but the market keeps grinding higher. I think the market keeps going higher but donāt confuse an increasing market with economic growth.
Rates are low because demand is weak. It has nothing to do with regulations. The prime working age population is starting to increase again in the US, that will put a huge push to growth. If Hillary can push through immigration reform and infrastructure spending we are headed for super growth days.
Call me an optimist. 
https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/page/files/20160620_cea_primeage_male_lfp.pdf
Rates are low because thereās no economic growth. Thereās no economic growth because of regulation and tax burden.
Stock prices increases when companies profit margin increases. Normally, Dow increases when stock prices increases. If DOW goes to 19000 from current 18000, it reflects how economy is doing great!
Now marcus335 answered how our economy is ! With this kind of economy, FED will not increase rate. If they do, DOW will dive back to 10000 easily to create issues like year 2008!
GDP is a measure of economy not the stock market. The economy sucks. Also, corporate profits are decreasing not increasing.
US is business economy. If business improves, esp gross and profit margins, economy improves that naturally reflects in GDP !
I agree with you. NO difference of opinion. Corporate profits are decreasing means economy is not improving. If economy is not improving, FED will not raise the ratesā¦
Why just look at male? This is the full picture of prime working age adults:
US is growing slower now than 100 years ago because our base is so much larger. Itās hard to move the needle when our economy is closing in to 20T. China is slowing down precisely because of this reason. Itās much larger than it was 20 years ago, thus growth slows down. All the low hanging fruits have been picked.
People worrying about government sizes should vote Democrats:
Our economy is on life support with low interest rates. We have been in an earnings recession for 5 quarters (Market Watch). Many stocks are going up because of stock buy backs. Corporations can borrow money cheap (Corporate Debt Ballooning) since interest rates are crazy low and then buy back their stock to artificially inflate the price. If rates go up in Dec, stocks & housing will be in trouble.
70% of GDP is consumer spending. We are a consumer economy.
The total population yes but the percentage is shrinking. Millennials are bigger than baby boomers. However, itās not good when a growing percent of people donāt work. Those people end up being supported by the rest of us.
European economies are much smaller and grow super slow. We keep moving closer and closer to their policies.
Clinton was pretty conservative fiscally. He reformed welfare programs. Clinton also wanted to do something about illegal immigrants and boot them out. Itās funny how congress applauded when he said it. 20 years later Trump is racist for it. Obama has been obstructed by a republican congress. He canāt get any of his spending approved. I think itās actually best if the power is split. It keeps both parties in check. I actually wish we had more parties. That way theyād have to focus on helping voters and not party ideology.
All of these person are not the reason for this economic mess. It is well known issue of TWO wars waged by Bush. He admitted that it is intelligence failure !
When Clinton gave the economy at its highest point, bush dropped to lowest. Obama took the worst economy and brought the US to this level. Even today, US is growing while whole world is sagging ! If the same policy continues, we will be seeing a growth soon.
Really working people deserves credit ! It should not be party line !!
IMO, It is the economy and its growth that is the key for survival.
Companies should be buying back stocks. When companies issue stock options, they dilute the value of the stock that their shareholders already own. By doing a buyback, they are basically return the stock to its rightful value.
