Economic slowdown coming

Changing of Guards

As for the stock market in 2017, Trump enters office with the headwinds of the aforementioned historically stretched stock market valuations, an economic expansion that began long ago in June of 2009, and a Federal Reserve that has begun tightening monetary policy. Indeed, to those who subscribe to the Atlanta Fed’s theory of “shadow tightening” via the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, the Fed actually began tightening back in 2014. To-date, they calculate the “Shadow Fed Funds Rate” has de facto tightened by as much as 325 basis points. The Federal Reserve, more than Trump’s fiscal or regulatory initiatives, and more too than the prospect of a sharp revival of corporate earnings growth will most likely drive the direction of the stock market in 2017. In our view, the unknown key for the economy, the valuation of stocks, plus the continued appetite for debt-based capital allocation in the C-suite, is: at what level does the rise in interest rates bite hard enough? The peak bite in the Federal Funds Rate in 2000 was 6.5%. The peak bite in 2007 was 5.25%. In today’s debt -ridden economy (government, corporate, and individual), will 2.50%, 3.00%, or 3.50% be the bite that ushers in a changing of the guard in asset returns?

This macro shit will drive you crazy…And you can’t do a damn thing about it…Meanwhile RWC has 6 houses for sale…A normal buyers market would be 600…The lowest inventory in history…The spring buying season is one month away…In Discovery Bay, realtors are trying to list my own house…going around me to my partners…no inventory. .In Tahoe inventory at 190 is low and prices are up 15% since the summer…This spring could suprise everyone.

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Yup. Macro is like a 20 dimensional chess. I am not smart enough to play. Better focus on the here and now.

Inventory was even tighter the same time last year, yet Bay Area housing price did not appreciate much. This year could be more or less a flat year. A flat year with high end stagnating and low end appreciating some.

Maybe Tahoe and discovery bay will appreciate a lot this year, much more than Bay Area. But is Tahoe a place for flipping or hold? Discovery bay might be better for flipping.

Trump heard your voice! He dislikes the idea of border adjustment, saying low corporate tax is enough. I can’t believe he’s so responsive to this forum

https://www.google.com/amp/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/trump-warns-on-house-republican-tax-plan-1484613766?client=safari

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Can you tell Trump that I want to repeal Obamacare and replace it with Single-Payer? Thanks.

Trump pushed for single payer system even before you asked, Manch. He has granted 2 of your wishes today, man. You and Trump are in the same camp now. Dangerous development. :grin:

Continue to send your wishes to Trump, hope you won’t become a Trump supporter soon :fearful:

Trump calls corporate tax border adjustment ‘too complicated’: WSJ

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump says the border adjustment provision, a feature of House Republicans’ corporate-tax plan, is “too complicated”, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

“Anytime I hear border adjustment, I don’t love it”, Trump told the newspaper in an interview conducted on Friday. Donald Trump Warns on House Republican Tax Plan - WSJ

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Trump is a closet democrat. He pretends to be a Republican because the Republican base is easy to fool. He said so himself.

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To be precise, it’s called centrist. A centrist Trump has angered both Democratic and Republican Puritans.

I favor centrist since I am a centrist myself. Centrists are truly smart people. Centrists, libertarians, moderates, are all smart people. Those extreme leftists and rightists are all dumb and dangerous.

Trump was a Democrat for a long time when Democratic Party was more centrist during Clinton years. He only became Republican after progressive Obama pushed too far left.

If Trump has the speech skills like Bill, you would be a huge fan.

Btw, I do not think Trump fooled anyone. He got many votes from many Democrats in midwest and lost some votes from Republicans. Probably more Democrats votes for him than the Republicans who refused to vote for him. Trump’s win is from Democrats. I find it amusing that no one likes to face the fact that Trump won due to his Democratic supporters.

Haha if trump wasn’t such an ass I would like him

I can agree with Trump on a few issues. I can agree with most people on some things. But Trump is still very dangerous on far too many things for me to be comfortable. And like you said, he’s a big ass and bully. So no love for Trump.

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Trump is a better choice than career politicians by design. Not because of his own characteristics, the intrinsic reason is his real world business experience and his lack of political experience.

We need more candidates who are making a living by doing politics. Reagan, Trump, Arnold are good examples. Coincidently they are all Republicans.

Democrates need to find new candidates from business world. Steve westly, Thiel, zuckerburg would be better choice for state governor or SF mayor. Democratic Party needs to abandon these politician who use politics to make a living.

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For the career politicians to survive, it is in their benefit to make government policies complex. With the complexity, politicians will gain more power. That would give them power to favor one segment as a way to get lobby and donations.

With a complex policy, the retired politicians can earn good money and be more valuable when they retire.

The complexity of US regulations are the result of lifetime politicians from both parties. But democrats are more guilty of making policies more complex because Democraric politicians are mostly lifetime politicians who have to make a living out of the complex system. If US policies are as simple as other countries, these democratic politicians will be of less value to businesses and they will get much less bribes and campaign donations.

Professional politicians want to make the water muddy and make it very complex. Clear water would expose the aligaror politicians. That’s why people want to drain the swamp. But it may take many years and several generations to drain the swamp.

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Jeez, for a moment, I thought you are talking about lawyers, doctors, accountants and finance.

Politicians can screw the whole country, whole state or the whole city.

A lawyer can only screw a client, a doctor can only srew one patient, an accountant can only screw one client, a finance guy can only screw some money.

Not yet…according to latest figures

It’s like 2005 now. Bay Area is slowing but the rest of the country is thriving.

You’d prefer VA or Canada quality care?

How about Medicare? Available for all.

Or whatever they offer Congress members? If it’s good enough for Congress it’s good enough for all Americans.

As a W2 employee, my company makes us jump through some hoops to get our medical plan discount and for a free extra day of pto. We should do something similar with respect to everyone else. Based on your current status and where you are vs some general baseline, you would have to say lose X lbs or reduce your blood pressure by so much. If you don’t improve at all or get worst, you pay even more. We need to gradually improve the overall health of our population by using incentive drivers so that eventually yes medical costs are reduced on a large scale as people take it upon themselves to improve their health as much as reasonably possible.

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