How to best plan for stock market fall


#21

Oh really? I thought you mentioned you dumped all your stock in the other thread. Do you think I should hold because I’m earlyish in my career?


#22

I’m not sure what prices @hanera and @wuqijun bought at but I haven’t made “FANG stock for years” kind of gains.


#23

Hanera bought AAPL during 1998 and holding it. wuqijun got FB and TSLA very low at 37 and 17 around. They are buy and hold investors, not short term players.

They bought it like bay area homes, hold forever.

IMO, FANG stocks won’t go down more than 50% of peak prices. For example, FB went $190, you can fairly assume max low is $90 unless FB goes bankrupt ! This is some guess work, but there are companies went down heavily during dot.com.

If I guess, TSLA will go down than FB or AMZN. They have issues with finances, delivery and car industry. During 2008, GM, F…etc went bad.

These are some Guidance, but no one can precisely predict how much low any company go.


#24

I am checking 2008 prices, google went down from 357 peak to 131 low in about a year.

I would not bet on 50%, as a result, but if you buy at 50% drop, it’s still damn good price to buy on. don’t time the low.


#25

Wow those prices are incredible! I wish I’d paid more attention to stock discussions in the old Redfin forum! :slight_smile:


#26

Very interesting! I would happily buy google at 50% of its current price.


#27

If you buy it now, you would be buying at 50% discount of 2023 prices :slight_smile:


#28

2023 is close enough date - so hard to say, isn’t it?


#29

Google recovered its price of 350 after 4 years (peak to after-crash same peak) took 4 years.


#30

But i buy your argument, but nothing holds true all the time :slight_smile:
Spy 2000 price and 2013 price had same value. You just have to constantly buy.


#31

Ahhh now that I know about your excellent stock picks I’m feeling torn! I don’t doubt 2023 price but I think there will be a nice dip for me to buy before then!


#32

Wow I had no idea it took so long!


#33

I bought Google 5 years ago at $350. It was more than 50% discount of 2018 prices :slight_smile:


#34

I bought google at 120 range, but sold it around 198 (selling was mistake)


#35

:sob:

Anyhow hope you made good use of the selling proceeds…


#36

It’s cheaper to buy a put spread that’s 3 months out than 1 year out. You get dividends every quarter, so protect one quarter at a time. It’ll be more disaster insurance if the market corrects by 20%+ in a quarter, since that’s the type of strike price you’ll be able to afford with the the dividend.


#37

Actually, it works best during a down market :slight_smile:


#38

Prefer rentals than bonds. Par value of bonds won’t change through time. Land value of rentals (if select correctly eg. bay area) would go up through time :slight_smile: Doesn’t own any bonds in my portfolio, only stocks and RE.


#39

Excellent choice. This is “unconventional” according to the WS orthodox. That’s why I worry about taking personal finance classes in community colleges. How many of their instructors are financillay secure?


#40

Jil forced me to re-post for your benefit.