How to best plan for stock market fall

Economy & Finance
41

I agree. Those that can’t do, teach :stuck_out_tongue:

I’m ready to enroll in H&M University (Hanera & Manch) Finance 101 class!

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42

Excellent ! Nice presentation, 110% return over investment every year ! There is no sale of AAPL for you, your heirs are lucky to inherit AAPL tax free !

You beat Warren Buffet and Trump (no tax) in this.

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43

We’ve different perspective. I’m ready to invest in any business started by 30s guys like you, tomato and lulu. The future belongs to you guys. 60 year old man can only talk about the past, not the future :cry:

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44

:sob:

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45

Correct. DCA purchasing :slight_smile: for at least 4 years, ideally till retirement and need the passive income.

46

坐拥云起处，心容大江流

Sitting down watching the cloud, thinking of the rivers that would be formed.

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47

It’s difficult to sit still while both hands are bleeding nonstop. :cry:

48

Awww… poor you… :frowning:

49

If we close the week below the 200-day, then I might buy some puts.

I definitely think this is more irrational market behavior than anything else given:

  1. Low unemployment
  2. Improving labor force particpation
  3. Low inflation
  4. Interest rates are still historically low
  5. Tax reform isn’t fully priced into profit forecasts
  6. Tax reform isn’t fully factored into consumer spending estimates
  7. We haven’t seen cash repatriation and spending lift the economy yet
  8. N Korea wants peace talks and is willing to end nuclear program and missile testing

There’s not a single data point that says doom and gloom except fear of a trade wars. I think once trade deals are hammered out, then it’s up, up, up. The only thing that could stop the economy in the short-term is if consumers mass panic and stop spending.

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50

Have you considered those triple directional ETFs such as SPXU?

I think tax reform is factored into stock price, just analysts and corporate didn’t factor into their forecasts. When they did, likely sell on news.

51

No. I don’t like how the leverage ETFs work. They are usually based futures contracts, and the price moves don’t necessarily match those of the index. They are such a crazy black box. I’d rather know exactly what I own.

I think there will be some surprise on how much different companies benefit from it.

52

In that case, some will fall badly, some will shot up. :slight_smile:

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53

All 3x ETFs are dangerous (for invested amount) and speculative, it is not for investment, but kind of day trading to be done within few days.

54

3x ETF is only good for shorting. If you want to be long short the inverse, if you want to be short short the straight.

55

Why do you say buy some puts? Do you think if it hits below moving average of 200 (dow), it will continue to slide further?

This is just FYI, but I do not favor the title content (all media will say it will be down when it is going down, up when it is going up)

dow200

Source:

56

Saying what EWT is saying :slight_smile: wave 4 not completed yet, after that is uptrend wave 5.

57

EWT are technical, now there are fundamental change is happening…

58

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BSVX:IND

Down 200 points from high…12%

59

@Jil closing the week below would definitely be bearish. It doesn’t make sense based on all the data, but the price action is clear.

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60

Is best both technicals and fundamentals are consistent, otherwise I would be edgy😀

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