How to best plan for stock market fall


#61

In that case, almost all stocks came to technically support level and some are going down the support line. Marcus said if DOW reaches down 200 day moving average, it is likely to go down further.

Why support is not holding in this case?

(Sorry, I am really poor in technical, esp EWT).


#62

I’m talking SPY. Dow is a terrible overall measure.


#63

Didn’t look at DOW. S&P picture seems ok. Cut n paste from another post.


#64

FWIW Asia has been very calm tonight. Both Nikkei and Hang Seng only lost 0.6% so far.


#65

Just a blip… not even worth talking about in a few month’s time.


#66

NI hope so!

My update: I backed down on taking all my 401k out of stock market. I changed my allocation to 70% treasury bills and 30% stocks (no more bonds.)

It turned out that when I make 401K switches with fidelity it takes effect at closing price of NEXT day. That is annoying in such a volatile market. I may move the rest more slowly but I’m not clear on the fees involved. The options with fidelity aren’t great to be honest. Very limited funds and they all seem to be a “twist” on the thing I actually want. Even the treasury bill option I’m in seems to be some sort of “mix” of treasury bill type things which they warn me might fall? And it has a management fee of 0.45 percent or so! I’ve felt it a no brainer to max out 401K (esp as I missed a few years working for startups without one, and I cashed out my first one to buy property…) but I’m not thrilled with the options here.

In the meantime, I did decide to put my new 401K contributions 100 percent into a stock tracker so I catch dips and slumps in market without having to think about it.

I’ve been waiting a month or so to sell my match group stock to reach LT cap gains. In that time it’s gone from 180% appreciation to 145%! Just a few more days to wait now. I wonder if the bumble lawsuit is having an effect there. @manch I hope your match holdings are doing ok!

The personal stock sales I did last week settled and my cash holdings are higher than they’ve been for a long time. That’s helped me feel okay during the recent volatility.

And next week I am meeting with @wuqijun to discuss investing in his flipping business!


#67

if tradewar can’t bring market down, nothing will looks like.


#68

Young woman having an old folk stock portfolio :crazy_face:


#69

I have a plan to buy REIT every month to generate passive income. I now own 4 names and monitoring a few more. Some of them show great stability in this year’s market turmoil, like BXMT and NRZ. I should write about them in my passive income thread.


#70

Why did you decide treasuries and not bonds? Treasuries are just bonds issued by the government.

401k is 100% SPY and forget about it unless you’re near retirement. You get to DCA every month, so if it does down you’ll keep adding. You also get dividend reinvestment adding more if it goes down.


#71

DCA works even in down markets. Actually you can argue it works better in a down market. I learned that important fact from a book. Now I don’t remember what’s the name of that book… :thinking: Should be required reading for all investors.


#72

Exactly. 401k = S&P index. No debate necessary.

Can’t you think independently? Books are for bookworms. You’re an engineer, should understand maths very well.


#73

Indeed my REITs have held up or bounced back even amidst all this carnage.


#74

I just want to be profitable. Whether my thoughts are original or not matters little to me. :slight_smile:

That book has actual market data to back up his claim. It’s more convincing that drawing a sine wave. :smile:


#75

DCA works if you don’t have any money in hand. If you already have a chunk of cash you should go all in ASAP rather than DCA.


#76

Are you sure you’re an engineer? That is not a sine wave!!! Engineers won’t be influenced by words, only liberal arts & business majors do. Engineers look at charts and numbers. You can put in trading prices into a spreadsheet to verify yourself. You know how to compute average price right? :rage:

That’s would be market-timing :crazy_face: Is the most profitable if you know how to read tea leaves :slight_smile:


#77

That’s not market timing. You do that precisely because you don’t know how to time the market. So you negate all the fluctuations and assume that stocks rise linearly. This way, the earlier you invest, the better.


#78

For non-engineers and engineers who have forgotten what they learned.
Unknown


#79

I agree this way, but the investor needs to watch for possible bottom (not exactly bottom) and plunge full, even during the first time. This way, investor has better safety.

When AAPL was coming down from $135 to $128, Buffet was asked whether he will invest in AAPL or not,he replied when AAPL comes down below his expected level, he would think about it. He waited for AAPL to come down below $100, and got it at $99 (first time), then $109 second time.


#80

Market timing. You guys really know how to twist the definition.

WB is market timing too but he redefines it as margin of safety. Wait for stocks to go down to 30% below intrinsic value… sound more sophisticated and academically acceptable to most degree holders, yes degree holders :slight_smile: