Impact of usd vs cny on bay area prices

I was checking the exchange rate (as we were talking about upcoming weakening dollar):
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDCNY:CUR

In 2017, usd lost ~8% against yuan. At the same time, ba/sea prices rose ~25%. In january 2018, there was even steeper drop. How much of that 25% do you think is due to foreign buyers or locals?

Guesses?

It is very difficult to get money out of China. I don’t think it has to do with FX rates. The Dollar depreciated even more against the Euro or the Pound.

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Europeans are not super enthusiastic for american re, i think

More relevant is Canadian exchange rate. I heard people in Toronto and Vancouver have money flowing out of their ears.

Canadian asians?

Canadians who own houses. Doesn’t matter if they are asians or not.

Interesting. So they are taking a refi and buying properties in the usa?

Canadians like to buy in Phoenix.

That is odd. Why?

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They live in a tundra that’s why they crave the desert… :rofl:

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Real estate is very local, and depends local economy.

As I have mentioned here many times, BA prices depend on stock market, local mainly NASDAQ as companies are listed in NASDAQ.

Nasdaq appreciated 28.24% that makes the BA economy well.

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Right. I think people overestimate foreign buyers influence.

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Not entirely true. Prices are determined at the margins, and each sale becomes a comp for the other. If you have chinese/foreign money in things get skewed. I

Every openhouse i see at least one person taking a video with an iphone. These people are not buying for themselves. Then i bid on the house, it is all cash, and has a huge difference between first high and second high. I am not sure if it is not foreign.

I see the local people, too, dont get me wrong. Stock market doing good is adding to the upside, but i am not entirely convinced it is stock market.

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It’s the evil flippers like @wuqijun stealing your houses. :smiling_imp:

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Wuqijun is making an honest living :slight_smile: i hope he can buy more.

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It is true, Canadians like to buy in warmer climates such as Arizona, Costa Rica, and Mexico. Those places are cheaper to buy.

Most of the foreigners, esp full cash payers, are parking money in USA, that include Chinese. I do not deny Chinese buyers, but those influence are very limited compared to local economy.

If FB or GOOGL or AAPL are dropped by 50%, entire BA changes to buyers market which we had seen in 2008-2011.

You can check last 10 years Nasdaq and USD/CNY charts.

Nasdaq_10_years

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Um… is your envy and jealousy bubbling up to some unsustainable level again @manch? Relax and take a chill pill… there will always be people doing a much better job than you… :wink:

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Foreign buyers are not a significant factor in the last couple of years. Local buyer are crazy now, job market is crazy, economy on fire, buyers are scared not to buy. It feels like bubble years again. Housing price is going through the roof now, especially the average buyers and average houses.

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Agree. Finally we can say RE is bubbling.