I disagree! It’s nice to have something positive happen to counter the misery 
All other things you said are right except this one. SPY is combination of 500 stocks, the fluctuations are very less. Even if there is 50% dip or raise in one of the companies, SPY won’t have that much DIP or Raise. I do not like to short or put on SPY as it reflects averages of 500 stocks.
I am speculative on SPOT as this recent entry and unlikely make a big headwind on revenue/profit margin. When economy or investor sentiment is changing bearish, I expect SPOT to go down faster than SPY.
Just betting little money $250, loss is max $250, but gains (as per broker indicated) $29000 (hypothetical).
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You really think SPOT could go bankrupt and to zero less than a year after going public?
NO, I bet with $75 to get the lowest put amount.
But, I expect SPOT will come down rather than go up. First few months, original investors are not allowed to sell, like lock period. Once it is over, they will try to sell, take profit and SPOT will come down like FB went from $37 to $17. In addition, economy and sentiment is in favor of my thought process.
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Spotify doesn’t have lock up period. It did that weird IPO without investment bankers, remember?
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Past history is not guaranteed future value !
You were speaking in present tense as if those things are currently happening. They aren’t. Right now, you’re just guessing based on some hypothesis. There’s literally zero data points behind it.
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When I was younger I tried shorting stocks and buying puts. It’s just a lousy way to make money. Stocks have a natural tendency to go up, and puts’ time premium rots at a faster pace than calls.
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There’s very small windows when it works, and when it’s working implied volatility is usually very high. You pay a big premium to buy the puts which makes it less profitable then expected.
Yes, 100% correct, speculative without data points.
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It is opposite of Nasdaq !
My 2 cents, staying with cash or staying away is better than betting against.
Unless we are confident with some data points, better to stay away from market.
Whatever you do, do not bet with 3x Pro or Ultra.
If you see my SPOTs, it is almost worthless amount, just for fun.
I made 6.91% YTD and keeping quite from the market. Even though this is less than my 10% target, I am fine with stopping some YTD gains.
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Ok I decided to do the same thing with a little $ so it doesn’t matter. I bought 2 spot puts but the price is down today so it was only $208 for me.
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Volume is 10? Who bought the other 8?
BTO 1 SPOT put(Jan 2019 $100) for $2.85 
I bought 3 today at 0.75. same strike SPOT.
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what’s your loss so far? or profit?
