Memory lane: My first offer I lost, Similar home in this neighborhood


My very first offer, during 1999-2000 , period, was with similar Condo 2BD 1.5BH with this neighborhood. Listed for $375k, gave offer $450k lost it to highest bid at $475k !

Then stock fell after, lay off started, left the real estate for next 5 years !


Just another reminder that in life, “failures” are not necessarily bad things. We all learn from those experiences and hopefully we come out even stronger and better for it.


This made me lookup the place I rented when I first moved here. It was a TH and sold for $581k in 2006. It sold again in 2013 for $580k, so that person broke even over 7 years. Now the Redfin estimate is $843k. I guess it goes to show that timing can matter a ton.

The house I owned in Michigan is straight up depressing.

2000 - $144k
2002 - $230k appraisal (I added ~200 sq ft upstairs and added a bathroom to make a master suite upstairs)
2004 - $151k sold (Michigan crashed before the rest of the country)
2008 - $123k sold
2016 - $185k sold
2017 - $231k Redfin estimate (doubtful given the sold price a year ago)


Michigan was worst hit by 2008-2009 downturn, recovery is long way. There were many homes came to ebay auction sold less than $5000 !


The downturn started earlier there too. It had already started by 2004 when I left.

You can still buy homes under $10k in Detroit and Flint. The property taxes run about 25% of the home value. I know people that were buying them as fast as they could and renting them out section 8. The people that live in those areas have zero desire to buy a home. There’s no reason to pay a mortgage when rent is free.

A large percent of Detroit residents don’t even pay their utility bills. Now there are tens of thousands not paying property taxes. The city can’t get around to foreclosing on all of them.

Just remember. It wasn’t that long ago Detroit had the highest median income in the country and was the symbol of prosperity.


Yes, I read about Detroit during 2008 period, with Sad note that it was on Top once upon a time. Even visited Ford 12 acre (I think) museum during 2004-5 period !


Michigan is a classic case of liberal policies destroying the economy. .The welfare state helped destroy Detroit. .Property taxes are out of control…Government spending out of control.Political correctness out of control…The majority sent a message…They voted for Trump…Now they need to send their socialist mayors packing… There is a new book out about the decline of Detroit. …It doesn’t even address the real real reasons…Afraid of the PC police?..White flight and the ghetto culture. …Welfare has destroyed afro american society. …It has created an underclass dominated by prison culture…



Isn’t the problem with Detroit simply the fact that it wasn’t well diversified in terms of manufacturing? It was cars, cars, and more cars. Once that relative advantage was gone, the city couldn’t survive or couldn’t change industrially fast enough to keep up. One can argue should we worry about SV? Well, it is “all tech” but fairly diversified no from hardware to software? Things that make our computer systems and internet hum along or keeps the users of the internet interested and vested (money-wise). SV is smart to keep pushing the envelope into new products and technologies like self-driving autos. Complacency is sure death.


Tech is horizontal, applies to all industries and departments. Auto industry is vertical.
SV also has solid finance and healthcare industry - less well known.


Just to think outside the box, let’s say there is truly a new “tech” that just blows away all that we know and have now (and that SV produces). Theoretically, SV could then lose its relative advantage too right (if it didn’t evolve along)?


So long there are many smart people around, they would respond (not by leaving :grin:, though some would leave). We are talking about probability, no point quoting “Black Swan” type of event, anything can happen. In Detroit, the issues are obvious to them decades ago, they just refuse to react or their hands are tied… read about the threats to auto industry when I was in colleges, about 40 years ago… very surprise to see very little changes to their auto industry practices, similarly heard of the social security issue 30 years ago… other than tech, I think USA is changing too slowly. I guess once a civilization is matured, there are invisible forces that resist change.


SV is constantly reinventing itself. There is long term R&D carried out by the gov + universities + large corporations. There is a lot of risk taking to create value in the form investment money. It just keeps churning and it draws in many motivated and educated minds.


Well, I also believe it is wise to never assume anything. Did we not pretty much assumed Hillary would be in the WH fairly easily??? I will even go slightly off tangent and use the OJ Simpson example. I remember his Hertz commercials and his obvious charm/good looks. He had it all, really. Nope. It is a real problem with SV being so expensive. I think you would agree that a situation like that cracks the door open for competitors to get a piece. How much? Perhaps not a lot. For now. You may have saw my recent post where a highly intelligent young woman with numerous patents already (or pending) spurned SV for another location. We can’t have that, granted on a large scale. We must retain the best and the brightest here if we are to continue to enjoy the fruits but it all boils down to money again. At some point, people are going to realistically take into consideration their finances and will act on it.


You have many beliefs but very little action to show for it :sweat_smile: Me, talk less do more, diversify into Austin and overseas :joy:

Edit: Overseas is also a currency hedge. Texas is a Republican state, hence a political party hedge. Washington where Seattle is, is a D state.


Now, I can argue that you are being contradictory. I seem to recall you advocating me to “enjoy life and not work so hard”… remember? Why would I, at this stage in my life, want to go out to Austin (even though, it sounds like a great investment/strategy) when I have enough here? Remember, you forget, I have no kids. You are right, I have many beliefs and one of them is to not die working. A lot of my Lowell high school buddies, some vastly more successful than me, are doing just that. At the end of the day, and this is not a belief or mumbo jumbo feng shui nonsense, we all will die one day.


SV is booming after 1975 onwards when Tech revolutions started. Yes, competitors are there everywhere for tech industry, but VC finances, Innovation still drives here. Having watched 20 years (if you feel short), I do not really see any major down trend like Detroit in next 20-30 years. However, we can not assume same crazy uptrend too, but a nominal 4%-5% growth will be there (again guesstimate !)

Even now, they are doing this. Every winning bidder stretches to the max extend and buy homes with whatever money they have.

Now, I can provide more info on my recent sale.

I had two full cash offer at the top with 5k difference between them. Both of them had cash proof for $1.5M, one has waived off all contingencies and another kept only inspection contingency.

Among all my received offers, primary home buyers were the weakest and lowest with 100k difference in price !

The current market flooded with lot of cash investors. This is the proof of how cash buyers are there.
No more offer please – after 4 days on the market!


Work hard is a relative term. I am very lazy now, use to work from 6 am to 10 pm in office!
Investing is leveraging on others, do as little as you can, outsource most of the work… guess you won’t understand it… kind of in me since teen.


The article about how/why businesses moved is pretty interesting. Businesses have options to locate elsewhere, and people will follow. Most people need a job.

The suburbs of Detroit thrived for decades after Detroit started to decline. The decline was very specific to the city of Detroit. Only Wayne County which is mostly Detroit had population decline. All the surrounding counties have experienced population growth (data below). The race riots in the 60’s made white people feel unsafe. They started to move to the suburbs. Crimes rates started to rise and the downward spiral started.

I love when people talk about decriminalizing things and how we’d be better off without the overcrowded jails. In Detroit, almost everything except rape and murder is decriminalized. The police don’t have resources to investigate other crimes. Unless you’re unlucky enough to be caught in the act, then you aren’t going to get in trouble for it. Decriminalizing stuff has worked great :slight_smile:


Whom am I to say your way can’t work? You and others here (supposedly, granted, we don’t really know what we all have really or not right?) are obviously very successful and I am fortunate to “know” you all. You all give good advice usually and I learn quite a bit. I am just a hands on person. Nothing wrong with that (IMO) and it has served me well.