I think we are on a secular uptrend. That is the old cycles don’t apply anymore.
On the demand side we have AI and VR that’s driving huge demand for DRAM. We are just getting started to deploy GPU’s in datacenters. The even bigger demand driver will be AI at the edge devices like cars. VR hasn’t even started.
On the supply side we have a lot of consolidation in the last decade. We are now down to 3 players. An even bigger constraint is the death of Moore’s law. We used to be able to double DRAM bits every 18 months by moving to a new node. Now that 18 months is stretching out to 24 and 36 months. We are hitting physical limit. The new fabs are also super expensive and that means barrier to entry is much higher than in the past. Each new fab easily costs 10b.