Overall, this is definitely no man’s land. It’ll be interesting if we get to the 50-day on SPY. It’s an odd time of year to have this sort of movement.
We are in a correction phase before the next leg up.
That’s my guess as well. The question is how long and how deep of correction? I’m holding all my stock positions, but I have zero options positions right now.
Have plenty… times to have tons of options… sell covered calls e.g. 600 NTNX shares are completely covered with 6 STO calls… locked gain & loss… sort of… prepared to be assigned or reduce cost basis.
Double SYNA investment to BTO 4 calls (Jan $40).
I am also restraining myself from nibbling on anything. I want to double down on HBI, UNIT, T, etc but waiting patiently to see what happens.
This is year end sag.
Additionally Dec 9th is vote on Extension of Spending Budget.
Then, it is Dec 12-13, sure 0.25% increase in FED rate.
Then, year end tax loss harvesting sales.
Until Jan 15 we may not see prices or index go heavy, but likely go down.
IMO, economy will not be at the brink of falling until next four FED rate hikes.
This is guess work, as no one knows future.
Typically, is soft now till late Nov to mid Dec where a Santa Claus rally (vacation mood + bonus time), follow by a tax-loss harvesting activities and then Jan effect (buy back again after harvesting).
So you think there won’t be any Santa Claus rally because of impending Fed rate increase + budget issue?
Yes… Santa rally to push the DOW over 25000…
Hmm, who will be the top tax loss harvesters? Could be good to buy some puts in them.
The obvious ones are F10 especially NVDA together with those that have lost a lot of value (didn’t follow such losers, so can’t give names).
Some of the top tax loss harvesters will be in retail names - TGT, Macys etc
From now, the only rally will happen after good run on thanksgiving sale, that too for a very short duration.
Thanksgiving is not here yet but SHOP roars to live, forcing me to close calendar for only AIr Pods profit. Immediate target of SHOP is $108… should I sell the 200 shares then?
Introducing UPS for Shopify Shipping news causing SHOP to shot up over 6%. Thought I see something latent bullish price behavior, now I know… must learn to avoid calendar… just long calls
Yesterday very red, today very green… my eyes are having hard time to adjust to such violent change in hues and lumens.
It’s a massive pivot. I wonder if it’s a 1-day then we go back down or if the few down days were the anomaly. We’re back above the 10-day which suggests we go higher.
Need to bring back old chart…
Immediate target of a double bottom is $108… expect some kind of profit-taking, if that can be overcome, next target is $123 So what to do when it hits $108? Bet that it would hit $123 or revert to $98?
Note to my self, eat more eggs… from iPhone X profit to iPhone 8 and now Air Pods? Should be a Tesla profit by now
Always violent… when was it not violent???
For trades, I follow the moving averages. If the stock stays above the 10-day then it should go higher. That’s why I use 10-day as a stop. I look for alignment in descending order:
I want the SPY to be aligned with that, because trying to swim against the current of the market is tough. Then I Look for stocks or sector ETFs that match that alignment. The market usually has specific leadership when it goes higher. Not all sectors and stocks are making highs on the way up.
There are times the market chops side ways for months and the averages never align, so I don’t have any option trades on. I only want to play options if the odds are in my favor. Avoiding trading when the odds aren’t in my favor and discipline around cutting losers is key.
Investing long-term on fundamentals is different.
I do not know. As long as profitable for you, it is your call.