Not Good, Manch, Not Good


#1

So, what is a possible outcome when these don’t sell Manch? Potential rentals??? And if their rents are too high, is it conceivable that they will drop those rents just to get some cash flow instead of having them sit empty gathering dust? And aren’t there even more condos on the way? This oversupply is not a pretty picture. If it gets so bad, I think it could impact rent levels in general if consumers have more options to consider.


#2

Ok, so I could be totally wrong, but it seems to me that the one place this isn’t a problem is SF. Many of the people living in SF are young, recent grads who would happily rent a nice, newly built condo and not have a garden or place to maintain. I suspect these will get rented out very easily.


#3

I will bet $10 most of the condos are priced above 1M. My target range? 650-700K. That’s half of SF’s median price. They make perfect sense as rentals. Positive cash flow right off the bat is as rare as unicorns in the city. In due time the market will work itself out.

In NYC even billionaires live in condos. It’s time for SF to up its game.


#4

Penthouse :slight_smile:


#5

One telling stat for me would be to know how long people stay in these condos. Is it mostly one and done or do people actually stay longer. I can understand people taking jobs downtown and having to sign on immediately but it it were me I would be gone after the year is up. Pricing is too high and frankly it is not a neighborhood.


#6

I’m going to guess 5-10 years. They will move out if they get married and have kids once the kids
are ready to go to school.


#7

My nephew just had a kid…Rents in SF…they will move out in less than 5 years…SF doesnt want families. .85% of young people there are single


#8

Could have fooled me, they are just building a new or remodeling a school near my home in the Sunset as we speak. Framing is up. I know, aren’t we destined to be like Carmel, a town for rich childless folks???

@manch, I don’t know what you were thinking when you moved here from San Ho. Surely chinese immersion could have been attained perhaps after school or privately (expensive I know).


#9

I think it’ll get worse as Millenials have children and move to the suburbs. They all say they won’t, but my anecdotal evidence is that it’s already happening on the lead end.

Seems good for SFH prices (really, what doesn’t – build all the condos you want, five cheap condos are not a good substitute for one SFH).


#10

Now, now, our fearless leader The Grand Puba himself (@manch) loves condos and if he loves condos we love condos…


#11

Condos in the city are awesome for landlord. Unless you want to be a slumlord like that certain couple on the paper the other day, buying SFH at today’s price doesn’t make any economic sense for landlords.

I :heart: condos.


#12

Not a pretty picture for this seller… should have bought a SFH instead. Depreciation and a ugly HOA monthly fee to boot… who would want this? no one apparently. And no, @manch, this is not a luxury condo. More of this to come, trust me…


#13

The HOA dues on these things are off the charts ridiculous. I presume they are trying to build up reserves? How can their expenses be so damn high?

I know prices go up, but it’s really hard to swallow these listings when I know people who bought 2br in Pacific Height for the same price (at a great time of course)


#14

Yeah, I happen to hear from a buddy who has one of those townhomes/condos up in the Daly City hills (Village In The Park?). I was asking him how much HOA is now. Just over $300 after all these years. Didn’t go up too much. That, makes sense. Over $500/mo is out and out robbery. And no, I don’t care how nice that community party room is…


#15

Turn the community party room into another unit…


#16

And SFH’s are next. Again, licking my lips… :money_mouth:


#17

They always charge you to use the community room too!

If they have a gym, heated pool, etc at least I kind of understand. But many of these places have dodgy squat, or worse a bunch of amenities I don’t want like a doorman


#18

Penthouse = condo. Listing at a lost. And no, the 4s in the apartment number and address did not help nor the 888 in the listing price… Had he/she bought a SFH, I am sure appreciation in that span of 3 years no???


#19

These high end penthouses will never cash flow. So I will never buy them. Problem solved. :smile:


#20

If you buy a high end penthouse the last thing you want is a lot of renters in your building. .I am surprised their aren’t restrictions on rentals…