SILVAR. How Tax Reform will Affect BA Real Estate


If our economy isnt going to create new millionaires at the same rate as last 10-15 years, which it looks like, appreciation will slow down and plateau, correct?

It boils down to what Dual income techies can afford a mortgage thru next 30 yrs. That’s a loan of 1.5M? Even Fortress is seriously inflated if folks are purchasing homes with RSU income included, isnt it?


Only 2% a year need to be able to afford it. That’s all the homes that sell in a year.


Judging by the bidding going on in Sunnyvale, it seems plenty of people have no qualm snapping up 2.5M houses. I think focusing on the demand side is mistaken. We may have different projection how many people can afford 3M houses. Your guess is as good as mine.

Market is supply constrained. Big time. Unless we suddenly have a flood of houses this market will have no problem finding buyers. There aren’t really many houses being built in RBA. A few dozens in this town and a few dozens in the next won’t help at all. Maybe when driverless car really becomes a reality people can just sleep their commute all the way from Tracy to Googleplex we will have a supply boom. Until then I don’t really see how we will have meaningful supplies.


Almaden valley, 95120, too good for schools, esp two high school areas. This is good for school seekers. Most of the homes have large lots, quiet streets.

Commute to north san jose is tough, but tolerable when you carpool in 87 and 101, but commute to Sunnyvale, Mountain view is horrible 85 hwy in rush hours including car pool lanes slow traffic.


See the hits, at least 1000 people would have visited open houses.

The lost offer ( san jose ) had much more.

Not only Sunnyvale, but also San Jose, Campell, Santa Clara…etc everywhere in bay area.

For example:

This will easily cross 1M, may be around 1.1M range with at least 25 offers. Someone just need a home and beat all offers simply at 1.1M range, no negotiation, it will go to pending immediately.


There will be a downturn. It is only a question of when.
This tax thing will hurt Californians… It is designed to hurt high tax states and reward Red low tax states.
The rest of the country hates us. We will see if it drives out enough boomers to actually create a supply surplus…

One other concern is the stock market. Tech stocks boom and bust. The current boom is unsustainable. A bust will hurt California real estate values…

The main thing that may drive out boomers is liberal politics…
Brown’s taxes, public unions, Sanctuary cities, homeless blight, traffic, over regulation
The golden state ain’t so golden if you can take your pension, and tax free house value gains and live somewhere else for half price…


If my family is being fed by income from some gold egg laying goose , and I hurt the gold laying goose such such that they no longer are so productive, it WILL hurt my family.


There’s a problem with people who never had anything in their hands and all the sudden, brand new in a new country are told to follow the herd. They are like the lotto winner, they don’t think about what will happen if they return to be broke again. They will spend, show the luxury vehicle, the huge house, and so on.

Housing market is made of 4 elements in my world.

1- Supply
2- Demand
3- Jobs.
4- Easy money

1 & 2 are going hand with hand. Jobs are a correlation of an economy going in a good track, sets up consumer confidence but the creation jobs doesn’t mean the housing sector will see this type of crazy rise in prices. No, it’s the sudden appreciation of wealth in the hands of a few that will create this insaciable thirst for real estate assets probably by the actions of all the sudden rich guys. Add it a grain of salt via easy loans.

The job sector is bringing this inequality in the RE arena. We have had what? 5 years of buyers confidence in the RE industry, that good, that this industry is relying now more than ever in the increasing number of employees coming to this area so they can play the proverbial pot with crabs in it. One will pull the other down.

Being political 100% is one thing, acting political 100% is another. As this friend told me years ago when I complained of why me not having a handout on my immigration case, he said something like this: “why all that complaining? why haven’t you left?”


As bad as the Fed tax bill is, it is not as bad as a state that charges the highest income tax in the country.
California has to stop spending or it will drive the only people that pay taxes out of state…


People in CA don’t realize how much they are taxed unless they’ve lived in another state. It’s not just income tax. It’s one of the highest sales tax rates. The median property tax bill is among the highest. The gas tax is one of the highest. It’s taxes, taxes, taxes, and more taxes.


Not only people, but also companies will move away from California to other states. This is the main reason Elon Musk made Giga-factory at Nevada, not in CA ! He follows elt1 Trick !!


Last night at our meeting, we were told of this company turning 401Ks into IULs, the tax to be paid is gone. 100% in, wow! Saving 1/3 of your hard earned $ in taxes helps. Oh boy… I am preaching to the wrong crowd. :laughing:

Then, this tax avoidance program (don’t tell anybody, it is a secret) where companies with less than 11 people will save 45% in taxes. Could be more, $175K to pay in taxes, $58K final bill to pay uncle Sam/IRS

Those with 11 employees, more. Why leaving CA?

As your leader said, tax reform ain’t going to help me, not even my friends. :sweat_smile::sweat_smile:


Lol, no one is going to believe anything you say about IUL. It’s already been proven you have no idea what you’re selling and can’t do basic math.

If you’re talking about rule 72(t), then the person still pays income tax at their normal rate to take the money out. They only save the 10% penalty for early withdrawal. So you’re either ignorant on the rule or intentionally misrepresenting it by saying there are no taxes.

So now we’re back to the debate of ignorant or fraud?


An idiot, is an idiot, no matter what.

Now, being double idiot is another thing.

This guy is heard on KGO Radio 8.10 AM on Saturdays.

Please dummy, keep this topic on SILVAR.


Lol, you’re the one that brought up IUL.

Did you watch the video? It’s the gains within the policy that are tax free. Taking money out of the IRA isn’t tax free. He even says if you take distributions from your IRA then you pay taxes on it. He literally confirms what I’m saying. Your expert says the same thing I said, and you’re posting the video thinking it proves me wrong.

You claimed “turning 401Ks into IULs, the tax to be paid is gone”. That’s a false statement. You have to convert the 401k to an IRA. Then you have to remove funds from the IRA, and they are taxed when you do it. Then you use the funds to buy IUL. The future gains of the IUL are tax free, but the person is going to pay taxes on every dollar they withdraw from the IRA.

Thanks for proving my point.


It took so long for you to realize this now? :rofl:


I guess he was slow to realize we aren’t dumb enough to believe the lies.


Can’t say if this is what is going on in most of Bay Area (most likely not all over), but there are people in some areas here that do not itemize because homes are paid off. Paid off for different reasons and not because they have owned the properties for over 30 years.

It is a very small sample, but on my street approx 50% of homes are paid off (we have periodic get-togethers and we talk).


Wouldn’t state income tax be enough to make them itemize? I always itemized in CA simply due to that.


Correct, my state income tax is higher than mortgage interest ! Now, Mortgage interest is less than proposed standard deduction ! Rep/Trump are cutting is with double Axe !!

I do not any benefit of locking the rate at 3.5% other than investing extra cash.