Snapchat to IPO in March 2017


#21

Of course the question is: will they buy houses? Or condos? :smile:


#22

Knowing the stereotypical Uber folks, they won’t touch anything older than 2010. :wink:


#23

Hard to go bankrupt with $350m revenue and 300 employees. I don’t think they’ll ever get as big as Facebook, but they could easily be profitable. They think they’ll hit $1b in revenue next year.


#24

Snapchat lost its value when they declined FB offer !

IMO, rate hike may not happen in near future. It is easy to go bankrupt when rate hike happens. If not, Snapchat will be like stranded yahoo or kind of tiny twitter life.

Snapchat did exactly the same like Jerry Young did declining MSFT 42B offer ! Yahoo is valued now by the strength of BABA stake, but not absolutely on Yahoo’s own.

They think they’ll hit $1b in revenue next year.

If rate hike happens, all revenues will be grounded, especially startups, as corporates try to cut expenses (includes ads) !

Snapchat original hype was created by emarketer, copied every blog. We had seen similar hypes during year 2000 and failures thereafter. emarketer says growth of snapchat exceeds/exceeding twitter,pinterest and facebook, but it is really not.

Snapchat traffic ranking (alexa ranking) is 1622 in USA, while facebook is 3, twitter is 7 and pinterest is 16 !

Snapchat is not near by these big names.


#25

Most of Snapchat’s traffic flows thru its app. The fact that they even have 1622 web ranking is amazing.

Looks like a solid buy to me. Maybe I will buy a chunk on 1st day and another chunk after 6 months? Still thinking how to proceed…


#26

After reading “Margin of Safety”, I prefer to invest only strong companies where likely loss is minimal, but long term growth is positive !

Not going to IPO market except Uber or AirBnB, but are great as of now.


#27

I like Uber but not AirBnB. ABB’s regulatory hurdle will be much higher than Uber. We are talking about people’s houses and we have already seen that people are very touchy about that.

So you see many cities are practically rolling out the welcome mat for Uber, but drafting regulations to rein in AirBnB.


#28

Yahoo had declining user stats when they declined the bid. If you think 1/4 point rate hike will make a bunch of companies go bankrupt, then you better short the market.


#29

It is not 0.25% makes the market down. The market is not steady and not growing positive. If FED raises rate, it gives them indication to investors subsequent hikes are coming that will make the it fall again like Jan/Feb 2016. This time, it will extend the fall further.

It is not 0.25% but the sentiment of raising rate makes the market fall.

Once fall has started, companies like Snapchat will go easily bankrupt !


#30

Compared to snapchat, AirBnB is way great. Of course, Uber is better than AirBnB.


#31

I think Fed only wants to raise rate once or twice a year. Max steady rate is 3.5%. I think practically, max 2%.


#32

Not interested in any of the three, Uber, snapchat and AirBnB. Burn rate too high, and margin too low.

Uber is not good because:
a. Usage growth is through very cheap service heavily subsidized.
b. Drivers are mostly jobless guys, some part-timers and some taxi drivers.
c. Operating cost is reduced through treating drivers as non-employees… ok because of b.

I believe the concept of Uber will prevail but not so sure about the company, Uber. Is CEO of Uber as smart as Mark Zuckerberg?


#33

I will not be investing on these three.

I have plenty of other companies to consider. Last three years by YOY growth was 25% and this year it has reached 9.6% ( with due fall in Jan/Feb 2016 )

FED is just trying to keep the market in stable condition. They won’t raise rates until Dow touches 19000 ! They may raise rates 12 or 18 months once !

If world economy recovers, then there is a chance to revise their strategy. This is to ensure correction fire is not affecting US economy by domino effect.


#34

You don’t need smart CEO’s. You need one who fights like a dog. And Uber’s Kalanick looks like he does push-ups on broken glass to relax.

Also, for companies with high burn rate, the key is whether they are in winners-take-all network effect markets. I believe Uber is.


#35

You’re so sure that Uber is the winner?

Are you sure that they can raise price after being the sole winner like AMZN? AMZN tries to up Amazon Prime :grinning:


#36

They are already trying to cut costs by replacing human drivers.

Uber is fiercely competitive. And the only battle they lost so far is China. Can’t blame them. China is tough. :slight_smile:


#37

Current crop of Chinese entrepreneurs are tough hungry wolves. Wait a generation, they would become fat and complacent.


#38

We aren’t getting multiple rate increases unless the economy is much stronger. If it’s much stronger, then there’s not a bankruptcy risk. The fed isn’t going to raise rates to 4% just because rates are low. We aren’t even achieving 2% GDP growth right now.


#39

That was quick…


#40

Someone will buy twitter. At the right price. I love twitter. Literallly spend hours on it everyday.