Stock Market and Real Estate Return in 2016: A Comparison


Agree, and i don’t understand why tesla label as Tech company instead of car manufacturing company. The others are innovating as well. you know


A bet on Elon Musk is able to execute better than the rest of the car manufacturers.
A bet on Elon Musk’s better connection with USG than the rest of the car manufacturers.
A bet on the concept that the first to reach there first, grab all the gold.


Right. Elon is good. Very good. But is that enough of a moat? I am not sure.


Neither do I. During SJ era, AAPL also yo-yo, very volatile despite being led by a well recognized visionary. Have faith or stay out… some1 on top would decide whether it is a winner or not :grin: … any1 have access to the top?


Did you buy any when the market was down in January of 2016?


I think so. Apple also succeeded because of Steve Jobs the person. So it makes sense to invest in a person rather than a technology or a sector. If Elon were to start a fast food chain I would invest in that chain. But I wouldn’t pour money into McDonalds.


Tesla battery technology is an innovation, patented (Protected for 20 years) which no one can match with performance and cost. This is his MOAT. GM is the only competitor that produced equal range battery, but with higher cost. BMW or Benz o Nissan are no match yet. Before becoming IPO, Elon has put his money for 10 years to invent the technology/know how like the way he is doing with SPACE-X. Otherwise, beating the existing car producers like GM or FORD is not an easy task.


Tesla needs to execute model 3 at the right price point. If not, then they’re just a high-priced niche player. The jury is still out. They already pushed out the launch once.

Their line rate still isn’t close to what’s required to hit their target price point. They admitted the design wasn’t done when they announced and took pre-orders. So you’re betting they can finish the design, all the theory on paper works, and they can significantly increase their line rate. That’s way too many ifs for me. Especially considering every quarter they fail to achieve their delivery target due to manufacturing problems. We aren’t talking a 10-20% improvement needed. It needs to be 4x the current line rate.


Right. Also tesla cars seem to all have quality problems. They are nowhere near the quality of similarly priced cars. In that regard Elon is nowhere near Steve jobs. Also who is Tessa’s Tim Cook?


I’ve said for years he needs a Tim Cook on the operations side.

I don’t think people realize the decades of knowledge that goes into car quality. Every component has a book of tests to prove reliability. Then there’s a similar book for system level tests. Finally, you have vehicle level tests. Tesla would have to build that knowledge from zero. It’s like as a simple as electronics testing, since cars operate in a ton of different environment conditions on a lot of different road surfaces.

Toyota and Honda are brilliant about it. Once they design a component that proves reliable they use it in all vehicles. American car companies have improved a lot in that area. It used to be every vehicle team designed their own motor for power windows. Some would be good and some bad. Now they design one and use it on all cars the way the Japanese do.


By the time Tesla has smoothed out all its problems it might be too late to invest in it though. Just like the best time to invest in Apple was back in the 90s, not now. And has anyone heard of Tim Cook back then? Although this is not to say right now it’s a bad time to invest in Apple…


I agree 100%, it will be too late then.


Dec 1996, Apple bought NeXT for $400 million.
Sep 16, 1997, Jobs was officially named iCEO.
1997 is the best year to invest in AAPL.


Apple wasn’t running their manufacturing at 1/4th the speed of competitors.

If model 3 is a success, it’ll be like iPhone. You didn’t need to invest at the announcement of the iPhone. You could have waited for the iPhone 3G (when the AppStore was launched and iPhone became huge), and you would have made a ton of money. Just look at Telsa’s market cap right now. It’s already priced as if model 3 is a success. What’s the upside if they are successful? What’s the downside of they fail?


You cannot be scared of the potential downside or afraid of failure if you are looking for a 100 fold gain. If you are just looking for a mere 50 or 100% gain then yes, just pour all your money into an index fund and a couple houses in the South Bay and you can likely achieve that within a few years.


@wuqijun 50-100% gain in how many years in your opinion, i.e. what is the definition of few? TY in advance.


You ignored both questions. What’s the upside if model 3 is a success? What’s the downside if it fails? The stock is already priced as if it is a success. That means you have limited upside without a new catalyst, and there’s significant downside risk. You might as well go gamble in the casino if you like those odds.


I think 5 to 10 years should be about right :slight_smile:


I have already answered all questions. You only chose to refuse to accept them :slight_smile:


Oh, so 100 fold upside and no downside. I didn’t realize Tesla was going to a $4.5T market cap.