Stock Market and Real Estate Return in 2016: A Comparison


While I didn’t buy any of the stocks you mentioned, I did buy a few blue chip and oil stocks in early 2016 which gave me very nice 30%+ return to-date.



For search “average stock market return last 20 years”, Google gives “Beyond that, the long-term data for the stock market points to that 7% number as well. For the period 1950 to 2009, if you adjust the S&P 500 for inflation and account for dividends, the average annual return comes out to exactly 7.0%.Mar 27, 2016”

If you make anything more than 10% per year, that is great.


Tesla need not be 100 folds, but the chances of Tesla growth are higher in future and there is potential margin of safety is there.


I invested in Tesla at $30 so my 100 fold upside would be $3000 which means a $500B market cap for TSLA. It is achievable given the fact that Apple’s market cap is currently higher than $500B :slight_smile:

You have to realize, however, back then, it was 10 times riskier to invest in TSLA because it was likely going to bankrupt at any given point in time. So the moral is, as always, higher risk yields higher return.


Rob baron thinks highly of TSLA

“I think that in 2020 we’re going to make from present prices about four times our money,” the billionaire founder of Baron Capital told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday. “I think in 2025 we can make another triple, and in 2030 it can be another triple.”

Easily 100 folds from wuqijun’s purchase price. 36 folds from today’s price… sell everything and buy TSLA.


Hanera, will you be selling all aapl shares and convert them into tsla?


No. But considering buying calls. Can fund by AAPL dividends.
Don’t forget, my initial investment in AAPL is very low.
TSLA is pulling back…


I also will not do that. Even though I’m sure tsla will appreciate more than apple. Because I need the dividends for short term benefit.


Yes, leave the AAPL whatever you have. If you have extra cash, buy TSLA when it is below 200, I would definitely wait around $185 range.

How do you all feel about NVDA, UBNT now? They are going to touch low, both are profitable companies.


Following are the possibilities as per above:
5 years -50 % gain OR 5 years -100% gain
10 years -50% gain OR 10 years - 100% gain

The possibilities/predictions are too much spread out/uncertain.


You think TSLA would decline to below $200! Why?
NVDA… I think is a good long term bet… long bullish vertical to catch a short re-bounce… hard to tell whether it would break below 50-day SMA or not… so far provide support.


Frankly, I do not know why it’s fluctuation very wild, mostly speculation, but it is floating between $200 and $300.


Quite a bit like AAPL when WS is not very clear it is on a long term growth path or just one lucky hit. If Elon Musk can manage his finance and operation well, no problem to be 100 folds from wuqijin but it is walking on thin ice… The company is overdependent on Elon Musk (same as AAPL at one time, depend too much on SJ)… can the company continues without him? WB doesn’t like company that depend on genius CEO… he is happy with AAPL now, I guess is because Tim Cook is not as brilliant as SJ but damn good at supply chain, so is his COO, Jeff Williams… also product design is no longer dependent on Jony Ives, a few good lieutenants are around… management is sufficiently deep to withstand a change, of course, increasingly clear Razor-blade strategy… platform-services.


Tesla will release earning next week. Time to deploy your options strategy now.


Elon will definitely manage the finance well, no doubt. But 100 folds, I do not have magic crystal !

I stopped playing options since Feb 2016. Playing TSLA options is too risky. Another risky part, in any stock, buying just before release as there are lot of speculators. Margin of safety is not there during volatile period/results time.

Best is to buy, profitable company, after a steep fall - 10% - 20% range - like QCOM, IRBT, NVDA and UBNT.

When I took options last year, I had clear visibility as TSLA stock went down 150 range!

If TSLA comes to $200 range, I am sure to buy some stocks.


Hi Druid. It’s very simple, one of the best policies out there.

As an example:
Your income is $6K a month. (business owners used $150K-$200K + a year, regulated by MEC)
You open a policy for that amount= $6K x 12 = $72K a year.
You call the carrier within a week, ask for a loan for up to 80%-90% (from the premium, you deduct the cost of insurance=premium=based on age and health)

So, as I was saying, you loan $4,800 every month, you have loaned $57,600 but you still have $72K in your policy earning from 0 (2008) to 12%. Say you do that in 30 years, not completely sure, but if you are young, age 30 < >, it will give you $300K- 500K income a year at age 65-70. Tax free! And this is based in a 6.9% return. You never lose your principal like in 2008 and some other years.
Last 20 years, it has given 8% return.
I would, without any proof, but based on number on illustrations, you will get 30 times what your total premiums were, every year! In 30 years you paid premiums totaled $360K, that’s what you are going to get, more or less, every year. Again, this is based on an assumption that the market behaves like it has behaved in the last 20 years.

The beauty of this is that we use an IUL, an indexed universal life insurance. You never get to lose your principal, only pay for the cost of insurance.

The amount above, will probably give you $3-$4 million death benefit.
The death benefit pays the loans when you die.
Death benefits increases every month-year, which allows you to use a loan rider. Rider cost increases if your premium increases. This is a flexible policy, your premium can be lowered if you get into economic situations.

Policy has living benefits. Critical, chronic and terminal. For free. If you get sick, the amount of the death benefit will be used to prorate your payout, depending on the seriousness of the disease or medical problem. You don’t need to die to get $, 70% of Americans suffer heart attacks and whatnot. They die half way, and that’s devastating for their families stuck with long term care. LTC puts millions of American in BK.

Very simple, straight forward policy. The healthier/younger you are, the less your cost of insurance and more returns you get when you retire. This is not a “I will be rich next morning” scam. It starts to see returns in 7 years, enough to pay for the premiums. All of that with the money you spent every month.

I hope I didn’t confuse you. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:


Another good one is YELP. It is profitable but took a hit because of slow growth guidance. However, it’s hard to imagine TSLA going down to 200 again though… might have missed the boat on that one. But it is still under 300!!! :slight_smile:


Yelp, my long forgotten stock. Good to see that falling, will catch up soon. TSLA, I need to wait for some more time, but YELP I can talk some now as it has turned around.

YELP Summary numbers: Revenues of USD 194.80 million, Net Earnings of USD 8.26 million.
Gross margins widened from 85.05% to 87.15% compared to the same period last year, operating (EBITDA) margins now 10.99% from 1.02%.



  1. Lot of people posts after the results or after the fact. It is hard to forecast ahead.
  2. Growth for AAPL, AMZN…etc are common, but which one will grow faster given a time frame.

Predicting these two with data is really tough.