No need to forecast. So long the leadership is ok, is a good investment. We are not as smart nor as wise nor as knowledgeable but we get to choose who we believe in
You are mainly telling this based on AAPL. we can not put 100% on AAPL or AMZN or GOOGL, but diversify it. In addition, we have seen many times AAPL or AMZN dips heavily.
For example, if I compare AAPL vs BRKB. Last five years, BRKB is far better than AAPL. But, 10 years are above holding, AAPL beats at big margin.
Choose 5 stocks to hold them forever:
Answer: I had answered this question countless time. S&P 500 index fund. No stock is worth holding forever.
Max return in 5-10 years time:
Answer: Very hard because you need growth and high possibility of still around i.e. not go insolvent.
Maximize chance of being around = WB’s type of company i.e. Strong moat, survive an idiot CEO, minimum R&D, can’t do without products/ services, etc.
Maximize chance of return = Growth business which is opposite to WB’s type.
Want to have the cake and eat it too !!! Only one choice? I will choose AAPL, no doubt.
What is your choice (s)?
In any case, I have thought through all these blah, blah, blah… AAPL, Index fund, RE, some dividend stocks + play money. You would notice I don’t believe in bonds & debentures
Here also we can be choose, for a longer term, BRKB beats SPY. Check with 1Y, 2Y,5Y,10Y and much longer, the longer we hold BRKB, higher gap over SPY as Warren Team is working behind it !
In short, BRKB beats SPY with wider margin over a long period. BRKB is invest and forget stock !
Watch the Bain and Company videos on Founder’s Mindset. They are on YouTube. They touch on the profit growth and stock return of companies that meet the criteria. Only a small percent of companies grow profits for 10 straight years. 85% of those that fail site internal issues as the obstacles preventing it. Also, companies led by founders outperform the S&P 500. It’s pretty interesting.
If you look at the stocks people on here love, quite a few are led by the founder.
It makes sense because founders are more likely to have good vision. They also have a lot of passion to grow the business since it is their own baby. They will outperform for sure. I own goog, bidu, baba, tsla, fb, yelp, all led by founders. The major exception is aapl…
But then Jerry Yang made a good investment into Alibaba, so not all was lost. I think people are over fixated on his failures rather than looking at his achievements. If I had invested in yahoo back in 1996 I would have been happy.
That’s because he couldn’t divorce from Yahoo!.. he is not running Yahoo! and had wisely moved away from Yahoo! but he didn’t do enough to divorce himself from it… he should have resigned from the board ages ago… give whatever reason like personal imperative, may be say he needs to be more time with his family, that he can’t sit on the board or run as CEO when Yahoo! days are obviously over.
If he had resigned from the board, he would not have been able to make the Alibaba investment though. Then in that case it would really have been a lot uglier…
2017 looks to be another very good year vs RE.
Investing stocks is the best as you do absolutely nothing, collect dividends and watch them appreciates.
You are too heavily tied with AAPL. When aapl goes way up like last quarter, you’re doing well. However, if aapl hadn’t done well like the last couple years before, you suffered.
Coming from an investor advocating concentrated investment?
End date May 20, 2017
Start date…Return
May 17, 1997…31.65% (betting on the return of SJ might save Apple & more)
May 18, 2002…34.45% (iPod was the first big success that indicate Apple may be on a growth path)
May 19, 2007…25.48% (betting on iPhone is a big winner)
May 19, 2012…15.00% (thinking that TC is proven to be the right choice)
May 23, 2015…7.30% (betting on Apple Watch)
May 21, 2016…60.40% (betting on Trump)
No calculator for DCA purchase investment scheme
Historical return of S&P 7-11% (no margin or options)
Historical return of SV’s RE 6-8% (no leverage)