Stocks vs real estate


It’s only a tiny percent of trades that happen on inside info. It’s interesting if you watch the options market for unusual activity. There are people that use that and follow the activity to bet with the big money. I’ve used it sometimes. You really have to be watching it every day to do it.


News re: Blue Apron…


Jil, it was a nice response, you are super nice, keep it that way. :innocent::face_with_monocle:



Time for manch to switch to stocks before it is too late, and also get out of SFBA fast to ahem… Tax reform instead of the much talk about debt load is the one that could soften RE.


I already have a pretty large, and growing exposure to stocks. But I am constantly thinking how best to allocate my limited capital.

Tax policy changes like wind direction though. We don’t know what the final “reform” will look like. I still think it will not be anything drastic like what congress has put out. It may be the first tax cut in history that’s wildly unpopular. You wouldn’t think that’s possible but Trump’s magical.


Tax proposals from the house and senate is pretty similar. There’s a good chance most of it can become law. It’s widely unpopular in California, but California lawmakers are not key decision makers now.

If the tax reform passes, will SFBA housing still attractive?

This tax reform is really good for Seattle. With the absence of state income tax and a low property tax, Seattle could become the preferred workplace for high income professionals


Come on, now, let’s put some faith in the special interests and lobbyists… Time for them to make their moola…


Who is the special interest representative for state income tax? I think state income tax exclusion is pretty much a sure thing.

Property tax of $10k limit has a chance to survive since every state has it, and NAR will lobby to keep it. Current political environment is not supportive to owners of multi million dollar houses. Sure, a movie star may lose her 125k property tax deduction, but what percentage of people will be sympathetic to that?

Mortgage interest is a less important issue. The aggregate payment in property tax and state income tax is larger than mortgage interest from jumbo loans




Didn’t do any computation, presume you’re right.

So the cost for tech companies to attract techies from those states with low to zero state income tax would increase. And may have to raise pay of current techies in SFBA to compensate for the increase in tax burden due to state income tax becomes non-claimable. Which mean cost of operating in SFBA would increase, already high, now would be higher, hastening both companies and employees to seek cheaper alternatives.

Not sure Seattle is a good place to go to because the transportation infrastructure is really bad and dominated by Microsoft and Amazon. Are there that many SFHs around? It seems there are many apartments packed together in the job centers.


Seattle is building out light rail. The big employers have company buses. Besides, you can’t say bay area traffic isn’t horrible. Anyone using 280 to go through San Jose towards Apple sits in a daily parking lot. 101 is horrible from SF to Morgan Hill.

I think no state income tax gets more important as you get older, because you have more investment income and your work income is higher. Peak earning years are 40-55, so it makes sense to spend those years paying as little tax as possible to maximize wealth accumulation.

Seattle has SFH in the actual city. There are a lot of them actually. Also, it’s much easier to get good schools than it is in the bay area.


I think Seattle is a better bet than Austin. But of course real estate is more expensive there. To be fair, I think it’s a better bet than Concord too… but nothing beats the convenience of investing in the local market… :wink:


Immediate 2-3 years. Obviously cost of operating there is getting a tad high, is why Amazon is building another HQ :slight_smile: Cost of operating :slight_smile: is key… may be cheaper for you to operate in Concord than in Seattle… so Concord yield higher return for you… no place is absolute best, otherwise everybody would be there… no place is absolute worse, otherwise nobody would be there :smile: My intent is to skip the 2nd best after SFBA and wait there :slight_smile: Going to where the puck would be going next and not where the puck is.


I honestly don’t think it’s related to the cost of operating. If cost was the major concern, the company could have moved to the suburbs and saved a ton of money.


Cost of operating is key is referring to Concord for wuqijun. Thousand apology for lumping into the same para.


The biggest concern is that Bay Area becomes less attractive in terms of tax. Most of us may pay about the same tax or even a minimal reduction after tax reform. But if people in Seattle and Austin gets much larger tax cut than us, their land would be more attractive than ours.

The relative disadvantage is toxic. Nevada and Arizona could get some Califonians. But Reno has poor roadway access from CA, Phoenix and Vegas is too hot. Hope the weather and transportation can deter businesses from moving out of CA.

High income professionals in BA will be tempted to move. Hollywood stars can move their studio to New Orleans easily and keep their Beverly Hill mansion as second home


I think it is the cost of operating… I don’t need to fly all the way to another locale to buy anything or repair anything. Everything can be done with a short drive… What if your house needs the roof to be replaced??? Hiring a property manager to perform all these logistics is expensive…


My property manager is 6%. That’s cheap, and I don’t have to worry about anything. I think our threshold is anything over $300 they have to get approval from me. Anything else she handles it. So far, it’s worth it just because her volume gets better rates with contractors.


6% of rent? No thank you! I can use that money to buy myself a nice trip to the Bahamas every month :rofl:

And beside, I already have a dedicated contractor whom I go to… I save $ because he handles all my transactions (rentals + flips) in bulk… :wink:


If you own enough rentals that 6% is a vacation every month, then you should value your time more than the money. Besides, how will you take the vacation if you are the property manager?