China, one-third of the world’s car market, is working on a timetable to end sales of fossil-fuel-based vehicles, the country’s vice minister of industry and information technology, Xin Guobin, told an industry forum in Tianjin on Saturday. That would probably see the country join Norway, France and the U.K. in switching to a wholly electric fleet within the lifetime of most current drivers.
Just 695,000 electric vehicles were sold in 2016, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, equivalent to about three days of sales in an 84 million-strong market.
As many as 800,000 charging stations will be built this year alone, according to the official China Daily. Government mandates will require manufacturers to sell 8 percent of their vehicles with electric or hybrid powertrains from next year, or purchase credits to make up the difference, rising to 20 percent by 2025.
India, due to overtake Germany and then Japan as the world’s third-biggest auto market by 2020, is on a similar path. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s think-tank Niti Aayog aims to get electric vehicles to 44 percent of the fleet by 2030, and is aggressively favoring them with tax rates 31 percentage points below those on hybrids and internal-combustion-engine cars under its new harmonized GST sales tax.France and the U.K., the world’s sixth- and seventh-biggest markets, are planning to phase out sales of non-electric cars by 2040, while tiny Norway aims to reach that line 10 years earlier. Neither of those targets looks especially ambitious, given the rapid drop in battery costs: In the U.S. and EU, electric cars will reach price parity with conventional vehicles in terms of purchase and running costs around the mid-2020s, according to BNEF.