Trading wars impact

Look like China tries to avoid full scale trade war, merely make token reciprocal tariffs?

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China is not at a point where it can go head to head with America. Its GDP (nominal) needs to be at least twice the size of the US before the balance of power really shifts to its favor. By that time it will be holding all the cards. Now it still needs to lay low and quietly grow its power.

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The immediate impact, Trump tariff, is not for China, but for those companies who import from China. The profit margin will get a hit until they make locally or continue the import (with higher tariff).

All those US companies stock price will reflect the tariff effect. This is permanent until tariff is removed.

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So obviously FANGs would not be affected because they import zilch from China. BATs should also not be affected because they import zilch from America. APPL and TSLA, however, might be affected indirectly because they are not internet centric like the FANGs and BATs.

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The tariffs aren’t immediate either. There’s a 15-day window for them to organize more details. Then there’s a 30-day public comment period. That creates time to do a deal to avoid tariffs.

The steel and aluminum one ended up being a lot of crying over nothing. It actually got some trade partners to reduce/eliminate existing tariffs on US goods.

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This thing is Black Friday/Monday material. I need to do some major selling to control risk exposure.

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Um… not that extreme.

Excuse me, forgot something…

:scream: :scream: :scream: :scream: :scream: :scream:

Now what are we taking about again?

China Hits Back at Trump Tariffs as Trade War Finally Arrives

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2018-03-22/trump-orders-50-billion-hit-on-china-goods-amid-trade-war-fears

“This is an opening gambit by China, signaling that the imposition of tariffs by the U.S. will elicit what Beijing views as a proportionate retaliatory response,” said Eswar Prasad, a former chief of the International Monetary Fund’s China division and now a professor at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York. “China has the ability to inflict significant economic harm on U.S. exporters of certain goods and can also use other overt as well as covert actions such as supply chain disruptions to hurt U.S. manufacturers.

Maybe Foxconn would suddenly have problems making iPhones?

At present, China seems to be focusing on ASEAN and India. Many free goodies for these nations.

Possibly. Foxconn may have a power outage for 1 week and Apple Store will have nothing to sell :rofl:

He forgot you are using portfolio margin, 1 for 10 :slight_smile: not his 30% :wink:

Are you belittling my 30%? It’s certainly way better than your 0%.

Is it possible that Trump and China exchange some threats but then reach some agreement to make the trade “war” more like a trade negotiation?

Does the trade war news help anyone in the midterm election? Seems that Trump is doing this by himself and it does not benefit his party in the election.

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That’s my bet. If done right, it’ll build momentum for mid terms. Trump can take credit for the tax cuts increasing pay checks and negotiating a favorable trade deal with a China.

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But Trump won’t run any election in the midterm. Republicans are generally against his trade war or negotiation. It’s for sure a scary negotiation if not aml bad war

Tomorrow, I suggest you guys having a heart condition to get drunk and sleep it off all day long.

China’s commerce ministry proposed a list of 128 U.S. products as potential retaliation targets, according to a statement on its website posted Friday morning.

The U.S. goods, which had an import value of $3 billion in 2017, include wine, fresh fruit, dried fruit and nuts, steel pipes, modified ethanol, and ginseng, the ministry said. Those products could see a 15 percent duty, while a 25 percent tariff could be imposed on U.S. pork and recycled aluminum goods, according to the statement.
The statement did not go into greater detail. U.S. agricultural products, particularly soybeans, have been flagged as the biggest area of potential retaliation by Chinese President Xi Jinping administration.
Beijing will take measures against the 128 U.S. goods in two stages if it cannot reach an agreement with Washington, the ministry said, adding that it could take legal action under World Trade Organization rules.
Asian stock markets took a dive on the news, with Japan’s Nikkei index sliding as much as 3 percent in early Friday trade.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/china-responds-to-trump-tariffs-with-proposed-list-of-128-us-products-to-target/ar-BBKA66j?ocid=spartanntp

Market failed to bounce and is now sinking like a rock. That’s very bad omen. I need to sell more than planned.

I have followed your lead and unloaded tons of calls and shares.
Now holding 1 LEAPS call per counter except IRBT for sentimental reason :blush:
78% cash, now thinking whether I should unload IRBT shares … hesitating… to do or not to do…
Your suspicion that it may crash on Monday is high probability.