Warren Buffet on Stock Margin buying!

Buffett disagrees:

“Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons. And that we will do."

Yes but it can also go on like what happened from 1982-2000. 18-year bull market for stocks.

1987 was big crash like 2008 real estate.

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A 20% crash is bad but tolerable. But a 50% crash is unacceptable. 1987 didn’t result in a 50+% crash. 2000 and 2008 did.

I can kind of see this happening with human greed, where people use low interest to leverage and buy even more stocks, and at some point, there’s noone left to buy :smiley:
Will it happen? I don’t know, but it feels very very bubbly.

Well, if you feel that way, then maybe it’s not the right time to buy a very expensive home…

i told you that - it’s different for a house :slight_smile:
How much did housing drop in 2008 compared to stock market?

There are plenty of factors that can affect housing prices (some of which are correlated with stock market):

  1. Mortgage rates,
  2. Trump’s plan for elimination of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
  3. Rising property taxes in california (like prop 13 getting eliminated)

I don’t have the brain power to figure out which are likely to happen.
However, i can see stock market bubble, just like i can see crypto bubble.

When i buy a house, i will invite you for some bbq one day.

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Only @wuqijun?? :rage:

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You did not come to meet up, you don’t have right to complain :slight_smile:

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He’s the forum owner and enabled chatting for us. I’d invite him :wink:

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S&P 500 was 1564.98 on 10/10/2007 that dropped to lowest 679.28 on 3/10/2009.

It is around 56.59% and I had seen my home dropped 41.66% during the fall.

Year 2008 was real estate historic down fall, next to 1929 crash.

What neighborhood/town was it? I keep hearing in some parts of south bay (LA, MV, PA, MP) prices didn’t drop more than 20%, but it felt like a lie, but couldn’t find much data either (I currently rent in MV, hence the bias in neighborhoods i hear).

My place is 95037 - MH, but the drop varies city by city. Some parts of South San Jose is similarly dropped. Mountain View, Palo Alto, Sunnyvale, RWC are recently going crazy by Tech companies stock growth, esp Google, Facebook, Netflix…etc.

Wherever bay area companies are growing, real estate came up very fast and wild now.

Seen the data in the past, and was a part of it. It’s real, but only for the most desirable areas. MTV didn’t fall in that bucket. I have a feeling LA didn’t either.

Aren’t you looking to purchase a primary anyways? You shouldn’t time the purchase. I bought in 2007 knowing full well that the market seemed unsustainable. I also took advantage and bought a better primary a few years later.

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I think LA (Los Altos) has been desirable?

I am not timing my purchase. I am actively working on it.

It has always been an upscale community, but it fell out of favor. Seen as old people neighborhood. It grew in popularity once PA/MP got too expensive. Folks rationalized the trade off.

Yes, always desirable ever since I know LA from year 2000. They used to have large lot, but now they are > 2M

The advantage of LA compared to PA is the sizes of lots. i like larger lots than smaller ones, many people i know are the same. The ones that came from denser areas don’t seem to mind much, but i happen to do :smiley:

If you prefer LA, take the tear down 10k+ lots and build a home. This is best for you if you have cash resources.