100 baggers

You don’t even walk the talk. Is not what you said, is what you do! reflect your real thinking.
In general, stock picking is :-1: because all stocks have existential risks. You can’t buy and hold (forever) an individual stock. Best you can do is buy, hold and monitor.
Broad market indices (S&P and Nasdaq) are :+1: because you can buy and hold forever (easily for 40+ years).

Btw,

I didn’t make much hard earned money, thought you know that. My hard earned money is less than $1M. Rest are by luck.

Perfectly said! In sync ! Learnt that way.

True, I am tired of discussions. I just jumped here when myths are floated, that may derail learners.

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Doesn’t matter anymore. High growth stocks have declined 50-90%, returning to ATH is already 10x. The better question is which ones are potential 100 baggers like AAPL, AMZN and MSFT (they are 1000+ baggers if you buy at the right time) over 20 years. 100x over 20 years.

@manch
Are you thinking of ROKU and NET :zipper_mouth_face:

Btw, previous ceiling before AAPL broke the $3T market cap was $500B. The next ceiling should be $10T (I don’t know when though). TSLA investors are sure TSLA would be the first one to hit that, and I’m sure if TSLA gets there, AAPL would too. So if ROKU and NET are that good, hitting $1T should not be that hard.

Anyhoo, I don’t have any 100 baggers (from today) in mind but nevertheless betting a fortune (ofc relative to my AAPL holdings is peanuts) on these fours to be 10 baggers or $1T: SHOP COIN RBLX U. I have other stocks in the speculative high growth portfolio, but smaller in quantity.

Ofc, all have to survive the impending severe recession predicted by some pundits. And a few more during the 20 years span.

Many holding TQQQ as buy & hold, I just tried to analyze whether TQQQ B&H for long term works or not.

TQQQ works nicely when you buy at deep bottom and sell it at ATH, winning many stocks, but buy & hold will not give better results like B&H of AAPL (1998) or TSLA (2010)…etc

I compared since inception to date, then Dec 24, 2018 and Mar 23, 2020 to current date, it does not give good results

image

This is good for trading - buy low and sell high, but not for Buy & Hold.

I am just publishing for each of you to review and decide what to do. Good Luck.

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So far many high growth stocks are only good for trading, many are not able to beat even the S&P from buy n hold perspective. These stocks have declined by 70-90% from ATH.

Yes, both get there please… :rofl:

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A good post on where to find the 100-baggers:

For major winners, the optimal industry structure seems to be highly fragmented, as consolidators have the opportunity to acquire market share much more quickly, and to a far greater degree. Furthermore, it is industries that are generally economically insensitive and service-oriented that present the best opportunities for such massive consolidation.

Consider the auto parts retail industry, which a couple decades ago was so fragmented that the top five players controlled less than 5% of the market. Fast forward to 2022, and major players such as AutoZone, O’Reilly, and Advance control roughly 40-45% of the market, the consolidation of which came at the expense of much smaller, less efficient players, who were either acquired or forced out. The performance of the trio has been stellar; even the weakest performance of the three was better than market-average:

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Find the innovators and stick to them like TSLA. All innovators have controversial style eventually end up recognized, but not easy to climb.

Or go for fundamentals such as this => Just for example: Long back I bought AMC 5000 shares $2 as it was fundamentally low price. Their real estate value ( just bare holding ) was way higher than $2.

I should have held them, but sold for some profit.

It is all lesson learnt how fundamentals are important in investing decisions!

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1 out of 100 :slight_smile: for publicly listed. 100 is pull out of the thin air, may be 1000 :slight_smile: The rest belongs to the garbage bin.

Easy to quote the past. AAPL MSFT AMZN GOOG etc. Can you suggest some potential ones (currently less than $10B market cap)?

No clear winner in sight! When you buy your next stock, please compare the ability of the CEO of that company to Elon Musk’s. You should only buy that stock if the comparison turns out favorably.

Also, don’t get too fixated with the market cap thing. A larger market cap does not necessarily translate into slower price appreciation of the stock long term.

:+1:

Hard for me to do, not working, not in SV, only have virtual friends like you. Is why I ask in this forum. @Jil is still on the ground, is why I ask him. Reading articles and analyzing past financial performance is not as good as views of people in the thick of things.

I know that :grinning:

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I’m still on the ground. Would you like me to run around SV and ask 100 random techies what the next 100 bagger is going to be? :wink:

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Long before, the last one, I spotted MRNA & BNTX, with lot of fundamental research at that time while I was trading MRNA from $16 onwards.

Nowadays, I do not do any such research.

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To me, identifying a potential 10x or even 100x name is only 10% of the work. The hardest part is to have the conviction to hold it thru tough times. Very few had the diamond hands to hold TSLA throughout the last 10 years. Here’s TSLA’s drawdown chart in the last 10 years:

TSLA went down ~50% in 2016, 2019, 2020, and most recently just a month or so ago.

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10 year drawdown chart of AAPL vs TSLA. Big money is made in bear markets.

Thank you for reminding me of my diamond hands :raised_hands: Been holding Tsla since 2012. But that was only 1/3 of my current position. The other 2/3 was bought during the major drawdowns in 2019 etc. Indeed, big money made in bear markets.

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Please let us know your 10x to 100x potentials.

You are assuming your 10x to 100x is correct. You know it after the fact. ROKU and SHOP outperform TSLA for 4 years! Do you want to bet both ROKU and SHOP would catch back up over the next five years?

Let’s assign 50% of the work to successful identification. The other 50% to diamond hands and incremental adding during drawdowns.

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This part requires close monitoring of the fundamentals, otherwise, you could get ROKUed. Having said that, ROKU outperforms S&P :slight_smile: So still a good choice.

IMO, you are betting with past history, not with proper research. In such case, plenty of chances you may fail with TSLA.

Jun 16th was the lowest of the market, While TSLA jumped 30%, SHOP and ROKU did not jump that much. Market sees future.

You need to see future revenue increase and profit increase for these three companies and bet based on this.

Fundamentals and future growth, fiscal policy (yesterday house approval) helps TSLA, while monetary policy (FED rate hike) against SHOP.

I leave it here to fill up the blanks. It is tricky not easy.

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