that is good, I’ve heard COIN stingy with stock based comp
You forgot HIPPO
Actually many do. Depends on your wealth level.
Say we won’t blink an eye spending 0.01% of our NW.
$1M is 0.01%, need NW = $10B
For your case, $50k is about 0.2% of your NW, so if people adopt your criteria, then their NW has to be $500M in order not to blink investing $1M.
This is a skill question. I hope to be able to…
Obviously for 15-20 years. Annualized return 25-33%.
Currently, IPO market cap is very high for good stocks + very high SBC, probability of getting 100 bagger is near impossible, even 10 bagger is hard*. So I hope for a stock market crash epic kind if possible. Great stocks would be thrown out together with the bath water because of forced selling by margin calls. During 2007 financial crisis and Mar 2020, I was evaluating whether to swap AAPL with some of the hot stocks, I decided no. For 2007 is the right decision. For Mar 2020, is coulda, woulda, shoulda. My current thinking is, try margin
*So @manch idea may be more workable. 5 baggers over 5-7 years. Switch.
Who has a net worth of $500M? Maybe less than 5000 people in the whole world? These people are not going to bother with “100 baggers”. They have better things in mind to do than that.
Even at my level, I don’t really care about 100 baggers anymore.
That’s why I say “no one”
This is a pretty good article on business valuation:
My valuation work stems from Pat Dorsey’s idea of understanding how the revenue and profits for a business scale. What are the fixed costs, variable costs, and opportunity set? This is really all you need, especially if you are attempting to value a high growth business.
It references this old Google talk by Pat Dorsey, from 2014 I think. It’s very good. Especially enlightening because we now have the benefit of hindsight and see which ones of his predictions turned out wrong. He said Nvidia had no moat because it’s all just commodity hardware, which was true back then, but Nvidia’s CUDA software platform had been gaining traction and that has a huge moat. Another example he gave was how moatly Oracle was but that’s true only for on-premise software. With cloud it fundamentally changed everything.
Anyway very interesting talk.
That is why fundamental analysis is not good at predicting future. Good for identifying lemons. The reason is future is created by humans What we need is to identify a visionary who can execute well.
In 1997, Apple is not a good investment because Mac is no match to WinTel duopoly. Absolutely true but SJ changed everything with iPhone.
I’ve made it a point that I don’t really do complex valuation work or Discounted Cash Flows (DCF). There are a few reasons for this, but it primarily boils down to the idea that they are complex, time consuming, and end up being mostly inaccurate anyway. After all, a DCF is mostly about the inputs, and these inputs are just educated guesses.
I have reached this conclusion long long long time ago.
Is good that you have reached this level of understanding.
Ape Nation is hyping AMC. They think the stock will go to $100k per share. Currently at $50. Book value is less than $4/share.
That is $50T market cap. Higher than aped TSLA market cap of $35T. Higher than current aggregate market cap of all US based public companies listed in the US stock market of $46T. Fed has printed so much greenbacks?
The current level of greed and stupidity in the market is at an all time high. Is there a stupidity meter?
You don’t have what it takes to get there.
Assuming meta verse is the future, need virtual currency and payment system. Currency could be crypto, FB did try to make one. COIN and SQ should be a beneficiary, right? I want to invest in stocks that could benefit from success of meta verse, and drop the rest.
that is an excellent point.
Moonshots for millennials. Apparently these folks don’t like holding the bags. Wait, I think BoA meant 1000 baggers.
Green in a sea of red. 100 baggers are 100 baggers. Let’s go.
Are these potential 100 baggers? Have only puny $ in these stocks.
I do not see names of moonshots
Guess you have to pay for their services. Can forget about them, did you research on AFRM and MTTR? These two look GREAT.
My inertia is causing me tons of profits, and sticking to losers like TDOC and ZM.