Anatomy Of A NIMBY

“According to a 2016 Building Industry Association poll,
some two-thirds of San Franciscans surveyed do not think increasing
housing supply improves affordability. Rather, they believe that land
use regulations help to protect their neighborhoods.”

I don’t see NIMBYism going away in the bay area. It’s what makes the real estate a good investment from a capital appreciation perspective. The funny part is they’ve convinced the very people that NIMBYism hurts that it’s a good idea.

They are you, he, she and me. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

Without NIMBYism and Prop 13, would consider RE in SFBA in a bubble. Doing away with either one of them would cause a steep decline in prices to a new equilibrium. Any possibility that this might happen?

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Can’t do away with nymbism…Most buyers become nymbies immediately… it is a contagious disease. …Prop 13 pretty much the same…might be voted out when renters become the majority. .

I wonder about a few things:

  1. Would CA or the bay area ever pass a foreign buyers tax similar to Vancouver? It’d cause an immediate decrease in prices.
  2. Renters are already a majority in SF. Will to use their numbers to demand political action to allow development? It seems unlikely. They are more interested in rent control and affordable housing. They are more concerned with neighborhood character than increasing housing supply. Just look at the survey that 2/3rds don’t think more housing supply would improve affordability.
  3. Will companies get sick of CA employment laws and go outside the bay area more and more? VCs that used to exclusively invest in Silicon Valley are investing in other cities. We’re seeing companies setup offices in other metro areas earlier and earlier in their life. I got to see attrition data at one of my former employers. It was over 10% in silicon valley and under 3% in multiple other US cities.
  4. Will employees who aren’t the top software developers (with crazy comp packages from a handful of companies) want to stay in the bay area? Even now, you can work for many of those top companies in other cities. You’ll get less visibility not being at HQ, but not everyone wants to work a millions hours a week advancing their career as fast as possible. Also, when you leave Silicon Valley desirable employers will match your comp package.

Already the answer to this is no. I talked to a CEO of a small company (200-300 people) who said he was having trouble hiring people because he had to compete with Google’s salaries. Sounded like after he got this endeavor launched and IPOd, he was seriously thinking of moving to Boston. He and his wife both have family there, so I’d give it a good 90% chance he’ll do it.

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From a lifestyle point of view, if you’re not the top developers, probably better to move out of SV. In SV, you live like a beggar… exaggerating of course, but conditions of your residence don’t look good.

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