I agree. Texas should do well by continuing to build. Just that the best way to capture value in Texas may not be through passive investment in residential real estate.
Mom and pop small businesses will do well in Texas if RE price is kept low and population continues to rise. Maybe it’s better to be an active business owner in Texas? Not sure.
Property investment in TX is not good since Fed started raising rates plus double digital climb of property insurance due to tycoons and forest fires. Any price gain/ rental increase is eroded by increase in property insurance even though property tax (absolute dollar term) has been declining. Better to pause, and wait for property insurance to stabilize. This year alone shot up 20-30%… even though Austin doesn’t have those natural disasters, the insurance companies spread the premium increase across TX. I suspect some increase is due to “catch up” for rapid climb in price during Covid era.
Insurance rates have roughly doubled for me in the six years I’ve owned my home but that still isn’t enough to sway anyone. I was paying $750 a year. Now I pay $1500 a year though I did raise my deductible.
Texas and Florida will soon be seeing foreclosures. Texas overbuilt. And Florida condo fees, insurance and mandates to upgrade are killing condo prices.