How do you calculate the intrinsic value of a company as large and complex as amazon? Wall Street firms have entire teams of analysts working with data to try to determine that.
It depends on the size of your investment. If only investing $500, just by some stocks based on news and rumors (or momentum, if you will). If investing $5Billion, hire an army of accountants and analysts to do due process investigation. Have a conversation with management and the executive team, and then buy the company itself, as Warren Buffet does.
ADDED LATER: same discipline should be practiced whether investing $500, or $50000000. Never buy a thing that you do not understand, unless you are buying a $500 lottery ticket.
Lesson: if we are not the one doing financial analysis (valuing stock) , someone else (like an analyst or investment banker) whose actions are giving news to the stock is doing. So, I think it is good to understand how stocks are valued.
Added later: What/How a person does depends upon the scale and scope of the risk.
If a customer owns a bank $500, it is customers problem. If customers owes a bank $5 Million, it is banks problem.
Learn this 30 years ago when I took MBA 
I read so many books on investment that I have forgotten how many and what are the content. The only book I like is the Fisher book. Btw, I have also forgotten what I have learn in BEng(EE) and MBA.
I know Ken Fisher. He knows the best way to make money in stocks is to be a broker. He gets at least .5% annual commission on his clients billions invested in Fisher Investments. His father writing a great book didnât hurt, of course. But because he is a broker he is not allowed to invest in stocks and has done very well investing in RE.
You have given the answer why I am not buying/holding AAPL now !
AAPL may pass through all 15 points of Fisher that shows what companies to pick up. No doubt AAPL is good stock, but is it good to get in at $265?
The answer is with Intelligent investor, buy only when you see low price with good Margin of Safety. A person goes through fundamentals will know when the market is inefficiently pricing the stock.
Just taking an example, see how AMZN was mis-priced with $1650 when I picked, but I also sold at $1811, waiting for next opportunity. (I am a trader, can not help selling).
Where as I am holding TEVA which I have got between $6.18 and $7.05 range. My aim to get at low with good margin and always see my funds grow.
I will get in when AAPL is mis-priced in future. Until this happens, I will not be holding AAPL.
Yes, you can not depend on news/media analysts, but there are good fundamental analysis is produced and shared by schwab, fidelity and vanguard etc. They are the gist to scan quickly.
The best is to analyze on our own and find the stocks on your own. If someone makes this as habit, it will help them long run.
Yes, there are companies, such as Hedge funds, Mutual funds holding multi-billions, with entire team of analysts working with more data. They are the market maker, buy companies at some point and hold long.
Still they fail, why? They work for commission, the focus is maximizing commissions than maximizing returns for the investors ! This is given by Seth Klarmann in his Margin of Safety.
Some companies like AMAZON, NFLX, ROKU are hard to get the value as the grab big customer base. They can not go through traditional valuation. If Netflix (before competition) or Amazon earns additional profit $1/day from 80% of customers, think how many billions they will get in that quarter.
Assume current price is efficiency priced to market value, try to find the future growth with all future initiatives. This is the main reason when Bezos declare every new initiatives, such medicalâŚpharmacy, analysts research further and buy the stocks when future growth is there.
Recently, when AMZN has given results, the current earnings/revenue are not bad and the forecast is also good. However, plenty of news/media said wrong stories that panicked investors to sell $100 less than pre-results price (which was very low). This is clear mis-price doom created by after hours sellers, new/media.
someone with basic knowledge financial knowledge, esp revenue, revenue growth, profit, profit margin, cash flow and cash reserve, they can easily spot mis-pricing. That is the best time to get in.
Getting absolute intrinsic value is nightmare work and that is not required to win. I use my own excel (and my own system), and trying to find mis-priced stocks. I started 2 years before, but nowadays I am used to it. I am still trying to automate system for fundamentals, but yet to master it.
So you just BTFD and call it margin of safety.
Why didnât you pick it up at $140s 
? Wasnât telling you buy now 
I have lost interest in FA be it financial analysis or fundamental analysis. I only believe in Fisherâs 15 points. There is a chapter on when to sell. IIRC overvalue is not a reason to sell.
Do you realize AAPL didnât appreciate much from the ATH in 2018?
Btw, you canât compute margin of safety for growth stocks because their intrinsic value keeps changing significantly. Better to use Fisherâs 15 points especially quality of leadership, new product development strategy, total addressable market and rule of 40.
This is Fisherâs principle. Do lots of scuttlebutt.
Not all Dips, but only mis priced DIPs.
Before BTFD, we need ensure it will go up in price, ROIC and dividends. The only way to know is ourown analysis, setting aside all other emotions.
If it is wrong, we need to pay penalty.
If we are 75% or 80% or maximize the right picks, that is more than enough.
Godly. Most think 51% 
is good enough.
Correct, I was not so much educated at that time.
Second, you were telling me the same when AAPL was $225 and bought again and again foolishly when dipped. What I bought at $225, sold at $148, I still remember that.
Lessons learnt: Even If it the company is too good, our purchase price is important than blindly buying it.
If I buy now at $265, using FOMO, I will potentially do the same mistake.
I missed TSLA around $180 range similar to AAPL at $140 range. Gone is gone, no FOMO as I have plenty of opportunities.
Say for example, I got good amount with TEVA, OXY, MUR, ABBVâŚetc plenty. OXY, ABBV and MUR I am holding for nice dividends.Instead of TSLA, I got GM (dividend) and F (dividend).
Averaging down is a powerful strategy for rock solid company. Surprise you sell at $148. You could have made tons Donât recall telling you to buy. Just saying AAPL is a buy n hold company at any price. And always buy in tranches. I did that for FB, average down from $200 to $120s, make tons. Can only be done for rock solid company that you think would eventually bounce back to new ATH, not some hyped stocks you know are fundamentally screwed.
51% is not enough, it must be 75% or more as the fall is always expensive.
Recent example, long calls from $8.24 to $5.54 as the stock tumbles big time! So long is a broken stock and not a broken company, can boldly average down.
AAPL is a buy and hold stock no doubt, but expensive stock, I could not have made tons. Even if I buy, I will limit my AAPL exposure to 5%.
When TEVA dipped $6.20, I grabbed huge shares (almost 50% of my portfolio), gradually sold until a comfortable stage of 5% of my portfolio. Now, I hold just 5% (half of the profit). I wonât even look at TEVA to buy/sell anymore, just hold like your AAPL.
When AMZN dipped, I took it 25% of my portfolio, but now hold small 5% (just the profit).
Nowadays, I need to clearly see a win, otherwise no move at all. Every loss is a costly mistake.
I have plenty of choices to grow.
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Only 5%? So at max deployment, you would have 20 
stocks. AAPL comprises more than 50% of my stock portfolio for a long time, in fact, at one time, long ago, it is over 90%, sold down to buy RE. 20 might be too many to be considered concentrated portfolio - Fisherâs philosophy, apparently follow quite closely by WB recently, AAPL is 26% of BRK stock portfolio. Long ago, I recall WB said not more than 10%. If you found an one in a lifetime rock solid fundamentally good stock, why not? Btw, for trading, my max is 30% 
Any way, I can not give you how much is my 5%, but would like to limit 5% of my portfolio to any stock. I can hold 20 different stocks to spread the risk.
BRK case is different and we can not compare with our tiny portfolio. He bought most of them at $99.
If I buy AAPL now, definitely I am doing the same mistake I did last year buying at $225 ! I may be right or wrong, but I do not want to touch AAPL and TSLA now.
Today, I am researching a stock that has 5% dividend as analysts expect a poor earnings. If it dips further, I may loose 10%, but if it reverses I may gain 25% with ever lasting 5% (likely) dividend.
Recently, I purchased MUR, at that time 5.54% dividend, jumped appx 25%, holding it for dividend.
Same way, ABBV with 5+% dividend, jumped more than 30 percent . Same way, bought GM holding for 4.4% dividend. I also bought OXY for 8.4% dividend. They may not jump so much, but have nice dividends.
I have plenty of choices to make, why bother about FOMO stocks, that too at ATH !
Sounds like saying that during California gold Rush, many people earned more money than gold miners by selling clothes, shovels, shoes, and maps to the gold miners.
Yes, people do make money selling newsletters, advisory, trading course, and books on investment.
Investment is an art one must learn for himself/herself.
Donât wait to buy RE. Buy RE and wait
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This is the key in USA, California gold rush continues even now, but in the form of stocks, real estate âŚetc.
Paycheck stays with 6 figures for most of the people, but investment can grow to 7 figures. We need to save to grow the investment, be it real estate or stocks.
IMO, you started the right process. Never stop learning, try try until you succeed in your steps.