Bernanke: growth at the peak, but not too much excess, possible slowdown in 4 years

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Yes, unemployment is about a small low as it’ll get. However, work force participation could still grow. It has started to improve, but it’s still well below prior economic, we are on the cusp of tech that could unleash more productivity gains.

So what’s people’s take? How many years to the next recession? I estimate 2.

Depends on china if and when they go bust.
I think the overhype of retail switching to online from traditional store is completely BS. Yes, the numbers shows way more online shopping growth, but this behavior does not massively switch over in last 9 months. This massive retail online growth is supported by chinaman like me buying and shipping back to china for reselling. You see all these group shipping small store showing up all over bay area. That’s the reason why US retail sales looks so good. What i see is domestic retail by american really suck , without chinese , US is already in recession . And you never know when china is going make some policy prohibit shipment from oversea, china policy changes all the time.

Interest rates aren’t the only factor, but the last 3 recessions happened after rates were increased by 3.5-4.25% from the lowest rate after the most recent recession. If that patten holds, then we have awhile if they keep with 0.25% increases.

I am a firm believer on economic cycles. So if i was going to get a real estate loan now, what would the collective wisdom say - 7/1 or 10/1 or fixed 30 - this is for a long-term hold asset. I agree rates are going to go up for the next few years, but i expect it to come down when the economy slows. Trying to see if 7/1 is too high risk and if the risk/reward ratio between 10/1 and fixed 30

Historic chart shows rates in long-term down trend. They make lower highs and lower lows each economic cycle. In other words, rate cuts are greater than rate increase after the recession. I have no clue what’ll happen next recession, sincere rates can’t go lower than last time unless we go negative.

@dioworld - Can you help me understand how this model works- do you ship electronics, clothes,etc? Which items have the greatest margins? And does China require you to pay customs duty fees on all these shipments ? What other fees eat into the margins?

I ship supplements, like GNC, costco, baby powder etc… … I just responsible to ship to oregon one of the group shipment places where they can avoid sales tax. Once shipment arrives at oregon group shipment center, my job is done. People from HK/China deal directly with group shipment company to ship it over. easy money for me just extra cash for me each month.

價真棧 in HK basically is a small costco clone.

and if you want to know how crazy people are, look at costco

Local retail stores can’t provide these quantity to buyers and sales tax is also a problem for a lot of states.

Online + free sales tax state shipping address is the way to go.

Interesting. Thank you!

[quote=“dioworld, post:9, topic:2391, full:true”]
I just responsible to ship to oregon one of the group shipment places where they can avoid sales tax. [/quote]

Oh man! Be careful! Somebody here doesn’t like those tax avoiding scenarios…:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

That’s a good business opportunity right there, congrats! :mask:

Product is actually buying for and shipping to oregon state. at the group shipment center . China buyer are directly dealing with group shipment center which is none of my business.

I know, I sell some stuff to those shipment centers. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye: