China: debt downgrade

It must be really bad if they are downgrading the debt.

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I noticed this downgrade, went to moody’s site and downloaded entire pdf too for further reading. It looks like China now is like USA year 2008 !

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Well, at least it’s stock market isn’t in a bubble.

Is the debt internal or external?

It has to be both at this point… A lot of the debt is at local government level.

china got their own thing. They’re like honey badger, they don’t give a shxt

Who is the creditor for the local government - Central government? who is the creditor for the central government then?

Central Government can say whatever they want you to hear, they have unlimited supply of $$. They print $$ way faster than our fed. Real and Fake. You can use both too.

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That’s what I am talking about! Now you understand why I am very suspect of those Chinese investors buying anything in the US. :stuck_out_tongue:

So, we’ll we see more investors coming this way?

Oh, I forgot, there are rumors, the FEDs are raising interests pretty soon. The stock market went up based on that report.

china still have a LOT of rich people. The fact is that we’ve been trading our valuable things(land, house, gold) to china in exchange for shxt(iphone, walmart junk) for so long, they took all of our money. Americans are so poor, even these tech dude think they making a lot, one downturn in tech, all these dudes go back to 0.

chinese investor buying in US. No one knows. china can change policy anytime. it’s something not predictable. But i know people in china will flood their cycles one place at a time, usually mainland -> hong kong -> australia -> us/cananda… i think this wave currently sitting in hk now. the china wave just past not too long ago.

It’s similar to MBS in the US. The bonds debt is issued by local governments, but it’s guaranteed by the central government. If those local governments default, the central government will pay the bond holders. If they don’t, there’d be chaos, and no one would buy the bonds again. The fact the central government doesn’t issue the bonds makes their national debt look smaller than it really is.

The Chinese central government is well aware of this problem. They just started tightening the credit market and that’s why the Shanghai stock market went down. I don’t have a good handle on China’s debt problem. I doubt anybody does. People have been clamoring for China debt explosion for so long I lost track. Maybe eventually it will come true but so far I don’t see any flashing red lights yet.

There wont be any flashing red lights for sure. They will keep it under the carpet till it blows in their face. I wont except any large signs to appear as most of the data is fudged and China has some very deep pockets to do short term manipulations and shifts.

But it clearly isnt working.

Debt wasn’t a problem in 2007 until it was. Once investors lose confidence and start the stampede to the exists there is no stopping it.

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The thing is, calling a problem too early is the same as being wrong. I was bearish on American housing market since 2003. Turns out I was right… 4 years too early. That’s pretty much the same as being wrong.

I remember hearing all the pundits saying Chinese debt was going to explode when they did the $4T RMB stimulus package back in 2008. And yet 10 years later China is still standing. Will its debt eventually explode? Maybe. What if it takes 20 years to get there? Then what use does this “prediction” have?


Huh? Gold, land and houses are junks. Most of the money in iPhone and Walmart Junk go to USA. You might want to examine the supply chain before making incorrect comment. USA gains a lot in the trade with China, don’t listen to the propaganda, study the supply chain.

All I understand is that report has some baseline, behind the scene some real economical data is there.

I do not invest anything outside of USA, not even BIDU and BABA, but based on this report, it is better to watch Chinese Economy and invest in right time when it picks up. This is the main reason, I was telling China is looking like 2008-2011.

You may need to find what went down heavily and which will comeback soon based on China government actions.

By people, I think you mean Americans. The rest of the world don’t want that to happen.

Maybe “clamoring” is the wrong word. I don’t think even Americans want China to explode. I should have said “predicted”.

China no doubt has lots of problems. I just don’t know the timing.

China is a currency manipulator?

Yeah! Some people swallowed that propaganda and they were very happy to believe it would be fixed. :stuck_out_tongue:

Since you guys who are smarter than me in economics can’t predict anything, the rest of the world out there doesn’t give a crap either.

Just watch the stock market tomorrow. If any movement, something is going on.

Will it make manufacturing over there more expensive? Cheaper? Will they try to raise tariffs on our products, or decrease them, etc.?