Agreed. The Thucydides trap is the real reason. We did it with Japan in the 1980’s and we’re looking to do the same with China, albeit a much tougher opponent than Japan.
Why? We are just the messengers.
There are no physical war the economic war has started already. While the two slug it out, another nation is quietly waiting to take over as the only superpower, already controlling many American companies such as GOOG, PANW, NTNX, ADBE, MSFT.
Now that I think about it, Trump actually helped Xi. He got rid of the most dangerous weapon against China: TPP, the trade deal Obama weaved that excluded China. It would have forced China to follow more of American written rules. It would have been China vs the world.
But now it’s up to US vs China and trump is not as strategic minded (or as sharp) as Obama. If the US had a rough patch, say a stock market panic or a bad GOP beating in midterms, trump may just accept some deals out of convenience. All the trade deals he has done so far are mostly nothing burgers. If that’s the case Xi may get off with minor consequences.
This is another hint that Trump’s real target is China. Yes the new NAFTA is similar to the old one. However, it contains a poison pill provision that prevents Canada and Mexico from reaching free trade agreement with China. If the result of the new NAFTA is the reflection of the intention, Trump wasn’t looking for much concession on trade from our partners, he’s looking to eliminate China’s trading partners.
Canada and Mexico are America’s front and back yards. China need not focus on them. Just concentrate on winning Europe, SE Asia, Africa, and South Am.
Those connected by land is sufficient.
Really that leaves Japan as America’s Asian pet.
The reason Europe become less aggressive was because they didn’t build their economy on their currency being the global currency of trade. US can’t afford be less aggressive. US economic riches are completely carried on one fundamental. Dollar being the global currency of trade. It will collapse like a house of cards the moment this changes.
The transition of superpower between Britain and US was a peaceful one. It wont be the same for US.
Hmm China stocks going deeper in red.
It was never about tariff and fair trade. Is about the currency.
It’s never about the currency. It’s about how smart you are.
its super smart. Almost genius.
From all variables (productivity, jobs, innovation, inflation, exchange rates, foreign policy, fiscal policy…) you need to manage one. Just keep yourself superpower. And its not difficult to do so once you have achieved the status. Let your economic muscle feed your military muscle in a loop and you can manage the whole worlds economy using your monetary policy.
You can make many mistakes in many variables and it wont matter much.
Say you are 30 years old, IQ 95, and I’m a young boy of 8 years old with IQ 200.
Can I win you in a physical fight?
Say we are of the same age and IQ, you are a well trained MMA fighter and I’m just an ordinary office employee, is that a fair fight? How to make the fight fair? Currently one of them is a MMA fighter with a weapon, the other is ordinary with no weapon.
US has 3 dominating advantages: military, finance and tech. The 3 are intervining and feeding on one another. The finance part is not just the US dollar although it’s a key component. Many Chinese tech firms like the biggest one alibaba chose to list in US, despite the US-China competition. American financial market is just simply the deepest in the world.
What are you talking about? I have no idea who you are referring to. I was only talking about trying to be smart yourself…