Coronavirus 2019 nCov

Live update

3:35 am Feb 2

305 deaths, 294 in Hubei (where Wuhan is) province, 10 in other cities of China, 1 in Philippines.
14628 9074 confirmed.

https://outbreak.cc/

Your 9k number is only counting the Hubei province, where the epicenter Wuhan is. The whole country has over 14k confirmed cases at the latest count. It’s going up by 2k everyday.

…

Since above posts, WHO has declared 2019 nCov as global health emergency and no need for travel restrictions. Few nations err on the safe side and put in place travel restrictions.

My unscientific hypothesis after reading many articles, deaths so far are mostly old folks > 60 eating wild animals in hope of curing their medical conditions i.e. first generation infection. So far hardly any deaths from 2nd, 3rd and 4th mutations. That could be due to the infected/observation period is not sufficiently long. According to the live update, about 348 recovered - my guess those are mostly first generation i.e. verdict on 2nd, 3rd and 4th mutations are not out yet.

1 Like
  • Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD) says it has provideddoses of its experimental antiviral drug remdesivir to doctors for emergency treatment of a small number of patients infected by coronavirus. It also formalized an agreement with Chinese authorities to conduct a trial of remdesivir in patients infected with the coronavirus.

Gilead is a Bay Area company. :+1:

Chinese market will be a bloodbath tonight. Shanghai is set to reopen.

The New England Journal of Medicine reported that the first U.S. infected person, a man in Seattle, was treated with remdesivir on the seventh day of his hospitalization. Although he is still an in-patient, all symptoms, except his cough (which has improved), have resolved. The day after he received the drug, his temperature dropped from almost 103 degrees Fahrenheit to 99.1, reaching the normal range soon thereafter.

So cure found way ahead of schedule?

2 Likes

The biggest uncertainty now, experts said, is how many people around the world will die.

This is the unknown that scare many folks like @manch.

SARS killed about 10 percent of those who got it, and MERS now kills about one of three. The 1918 “Spanish flu” killed only about 2.5 percent of its victims — but because it infected so many people and medical care was much cruder then, 20 to 50 million died.

By contrast, the highly transmissible H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic of 2009 killed about 285,000, fewer than seasonal flu normally does, and had a relatively low fatality rate, estimated at .02 percent.

The mortality rate for known cases of the Wuhan coronavirus has been running about 2 percent, although that is likely to drop as more tests are done and more mild cases are found.

14 hrs since OP,
Deaths from 305 to 362. 1 in Philippines, rest in China.
Confirmed from 14628 to 16786. 16607 from China.
Mortality rate 2.16%.
Source: Refer to OP.

There is a hypothesis that the Spanish Flu deaths may have been in part due to Aspirin entering the market and being used at much higher doses than were actually safe.

I’m hoping in the long run, the death rate on this is actually .1% or less. It sounds like some cases are “asymptomatic transmission” and as was said before, the cases being tested are almost certainly those that are serious enough to warrant a trip to the doctor, not the whole population. That said, I think it’s better to be safe than sorry, and I’m glad flights to/from China are being limited, but a little nervous that SFO is one of the 5 still accepting them into the US.

Like we need another set of germs in SF… Given the homeless population and lack of controls…

Read somewhere there are some people who don’t get sick and are spreading them. The good news is deaths are mostly age > 60, have pre-medical condition and 1st generation. No official verdict yet, guess they want to observe a little longer. In any case, now that Gilead is involved, chance is high this will blow over quickly.

1 Like

At the Super bowl party people drank Pacifico, no Coronas.

1 Like

Don’t Inhale: Flu Particles Prevalent in Public

Past research has suggested the influenza virus can survive up to two to three hours in a droplet form, but there has been debate over whether the droplets are able to stay suspended in the air long enough to spur infection .

So don’t bring in the package immediately after the delivery by the transport guy, wait 3 hrs :slight_smile:

Latest stats (refer to OP),
Confirmed cases in China = 34832
723 deaths = 2.076%

of which

24953 cases in Hubei
699 deaths = 2.801%

Other parts of China = 34832 - 24953 = 9879
Deaths = 723 - 699 = 24 = 0.243% lower than outside China? That death in Philippine could be an outlier.

Confirmed cases outside China = 318
1 death = 0.31%

1 Like

Need to change the name to “Pro Hong Kong virus.” Then it will just “disappear.”

2 Likes

The doctor whistleblower who died yesterday once posted on Chinese social media in support of the police suppressing the protests. Little did he know the iron fist of the Communist Party was about to squash him. There is a twitter account that does nothing but documenting these kinds of ironies, people loudly supporting tyranny only to find out they end up at the receiving end.

2 Likes

Vaccine is available and nobody want to make it in bulk?