Downturn is here.. house sold below asking in PA!

This a current bear trap that will trap those who are bulls. The bears are coming back.
Definitions get blurred depending on your time timeline. But bulls think the bear market ended in March. If so it would be the shortest bear market ever. But this could be a 10 year bear. We just finished an 11 year bull market.

A bear trap is a technical pattern that occurs when the performance of a stock , index, or other financial instrument incorrectly signals a reversal of a rising price trend. The trap is thus a false reversal of a declining price trend.

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On Loopnet, I notice quite a few motels/hotels for sale in the Tahoe area. Is this due to Covid or are there other reasons?

That’s called a bull trap. In your definition it already says a bear trap “incorrectly signals a reversal of rising price trend”, which means it gives false negatives in a rising market.


My neighbor is a motel flipper, I will ask. The trend is to take nightly rental dumps and turn them into SRO monthly studio apartments with minimal kitchens that rent for $1000/m. So you can get cheap motel rooms for maybe $50k each and spend $20k per room and sell them for $100k… just guessing on the numbers. But I bet there will be deals… need lots of cash and patience. Good time to take inventory off the market to remodel. If any of my tenants move out I will do that and then sell in 2021.

Sierra Pines looks like a good deal. Offer $50k per unit…$1.4m. Should gross around $28k/m depends on how many are paying under market( a lot probably) Assume high vacancy, high maintenance and bad tenants.


Thanks @Elt1. How is the assisted living RE scene in Tahoe? I know that section of RE is in trouble now. Do you know of motels that have been converted to assisted living?

In 1987 stock fell 40% but nobody called 1987 a bear market. If it ended fast enough and don’t fit people’s predefined notion of how a bear market should behave, it will just be renamed something else.

Stock terminology is like legal terminology… designed to confuse outsiders.

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Here is recent flip
Bought for $1.5m 18 months ago.
Healthy rents and returns

Bear’s Den

10,534 SF Hospitality Building Offered at $2,600,000 at a 7% Cap Rate

in South Lake Tahoe, CA

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I do not know anything about assisted living. My friend is renovating this one. Looks pretty mediocre. $66/n but got good reviews. They are upgrading everything including sound proofing. 30 minutes to Tahoe. 20 minutes to Kirkwood. Hoping to double the nightly rates. Post Covid19

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Another one in PA just went pending. Listing price is $1240 per foot. How much will it sell for?

Land value:

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Must’ve been a full cash offer.

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Back to 2016 price?

Selling after 3 years later with almost same price as they bought:

Crestline and September are only a mile apart.
September drive might not get more than 1.9M in this market. So yes, after commissions it’s probably a wash.

And subtract the carrying costs. Unless the seller lived all these days. The rent can then be credited back.

Isn’t the sentiments of most bloggers that price appreciation in 2017-2018 are froth?

Guys and gals, what should we make of this listing?

Just normal PA price? Or seller being delusional?

How about this one in Burlingame? Sold half price???

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