Fang, ant, bat


#1549

10 year timeframe of S&P index,

Oct 2008 to Oct 2018, no drip 199%, drip 267% :grinning:
Mar 1999 to Mar 2009, no drip -41%, drip -30% :hugs: You actually get negative

Critical to just hold :slight_smile: (or do DCA purchasing)
Mar 2009 to Mar 2018, no drip 257%, drip 329% :grin:
Mar 1999 to Mar 2018, no drip 111%, drip 200% :grin:
Mar 1999 to Oct 2018, no drip 283%, drip 363% :joy:

Mar 1990 to Mar 2009, no drip 124%, drip 232%
Mar 1990 to Oct 2018, no drip 757%, drip 1437%

Mar 2000 to Mar 2012, no drip -3.7%, drip 20% :sweat_smile: I see, bad experience

Oct 1994 to Oct 2018, no drip 525%, drip 876%, 24 years

DRIP unless you need the money for living.


Price Estimations - San Jose Edition
#1550

No drip. Use dividend to pay off margin interest.


#1551

Using margin, % gain is way more. You can’t use zero initial capital though :slight_smile: Also can’t use cost of margin :slight_smile: because not fair, margin is based off some assets. Not sure what should be used as the denominator to compute gain when using margin.


#1552

DRIP is a good strategy for 401K type of accounts. But if you are starting out with a big sum to invest, you need to DCA into an index fund, right? What DCA strategy are you suggesting here? How many months/years do you spread out your purchases?


#1553

Starting with a big sum to invest, I think you’re rich, ask your financial advisor :slight_smile:

DCA purchase into index fund is the best approach for a new guy started working, to save for their retirement (50 years working life?) or for their children/ grand children :wink: I have been DCA purchasing into a S&P index fund since 2002 and don’t intend to stop till … will let my children inherit the fund. I didn’t track the fund but vaguely recall from 2010 to 2018 is about 5-6x from the value in 2010… not sure about gain and annualized return… not easy to compute return for DCA approach.


#1554

All wrong. First off, no need for any financial advisor no matter how rich you are. Secondly, no need for DCA. Just dump all into it and then some (use margin).


#1555

You’re not in the market during dotcom era. All in 1999 and margin, you become homeless in 2000.


#1556

I did go all in in 2008 though. Did I become homeless in 2009?


#1557

Stocks didn’t go that low in 2009 as compared with 2008. However, in 2000, many stocks drops 90-99% from 1999. You ain’t see nothing yet. Vaguely recall (have to verify), AAPL dropped more than 99% in 2000 but only about 60% in 2009.


#1558

By 2003 or 2002(cannot remember exactly when), one of my stocks dropped more than 95%. Almost worthless.


#1559

I definitely lost more money in 2001 than in 2009. On paper at least. Too many bad years in stocks. 1987, 1992, 2000 2008 2019?
The problem with stocks is you never know when they will ruin your day or your nest egg.


#1560

Just like houses wont go down like 2008, tech stocks won’t go down like 2000 in our lifetime. The fact that people are still talking about dot com means it won’t happen.

There will be new crises. Old ones won’t get recycled until the people with memory of it died out. People who got burned by Great Depression mostly died before they can experience Great Recession.


#1561

S&P index fell more in 2008 than 2000.


#1562

You have to add 1998 to that list. I think it was South Korea that fell like 40% in a short time. That brought down lot of US stocks.


#1563

The next recession could be caused by a 1998 style crisis. The strong dollar, brain dead Fed and tariffs could be the start of a world wide stock crash.

Euro could crash soon


#1564

#1565

Is now a matter of time before market cap of AMZN would be below GOOG. It went below MSFT last week, expect next 1-2 weeks, it would go below GOOG. AMZN is a kind of bellwether of the future economy, investors are dialing down expectations.


#1566

It’s shocking to see Brazil go far-right, but maybe not so shocking after all the government corruption.


#1567

It is a time of extremes on the left and right. Germany is in danger of going left


#1568