Fang, ant, bat


#1950

LEAPS is usually listed 3 years ago, so LEAPS 2020 has been around for 2 years. Initially both OIs and volume increases with volume higher than OIs, but as time progresses volume would be less than OIs. Since LEAPS 2020 has been around for 2 years, volume shouldn’t be greater than OIs. As to whether those 13344 are newly created or existing contracts, we won’t know till Sunday night, latest by Monday morning whether there is a net increase (or decrease) in OIs i.e. newly created contracts > closed contracts.


#1951

I felt the pain of AAPL as I bought it at $225, but that is not the case for those who paid $145. For you and WQJ, it can not be a pain whether it goes up or down.

Yesterday, TSLA drop did not pain me as I got it at $296, but it is a real pain for those who bought at $345. This enabled me to buy another lot yesterday average price $305.

It all depends on what price you entered. The simple concept it buy when you feel the price lower than worth of company. That is Margin of safety :joy:


#1952

Since you want to know, is 600 shares equivalent, what is the equivalent purchase price? Somewhere between $140-$150 :grinning: $145?


#1953

I know some people use the trade price to see if it was selling or buying. The spread on options is bigger than stocks, so it’s easier to tell. That’d actually be a good use for the python training I took. I’ll have to see if I can find a data source.


#1954

Cool , enjoy !

I will spoil you more… Look at WSB site, you will get wilder option how people play. Some of them make $500k, but may also lose similar amount in options, straddle…etc

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/new

Did you try Quantopian, many data source, but I do not know about options. For stocks, good data source is iex trading api. Lot of information at Algorithmic Trading


#1955

Do you realize the cash on cash return is 56% vs 13.6% recovery from $123 low. Power of option position :star_struck::partying_face::money_mouth_face:


#1956

I will check it out. Just need to download a .csv with the data. Then write some logic to look for specific things.


#1957

I saw many times posted, real not fake, that his small amount (in thousands) made into 500k overnight.
531 votes and 187 comments so far on Reddit
1,597 votes and 380 comments so far on Reddit

These are crazy bets, that went on during pre-sep-2018, everything came down (most of them lost) during the last bear fall.

That is wall street boy. You become young boy like him, playing wild bets


#1958

If it is stocks data, you can easily download yahoo finance data using python. There are plenty of python libraries available in GITHUB. All you need to do is identify right free python github site, download, run. You will get data within minutes.

Look at pandas data reader (import pandas_datareader.data as pdr)
Just scan this site https://towardsdatascience.com/trading-technical-analysis-with-pandas-43e737a17861

If you need to interface directly to excel, use API 1.0 | IEX The best free source.


#1959

If we believe stocks have bottomed last Christmas eve and would rally for a year, we should be able to make this type of return within one year, 10x from now till end of the year with long far OTM calls. Which stocks that have fell a lot and you are very confident (anything over 80% probability) that would establish a new ATM?

For example, if you think AAPL would establish a new ATM before Jan 2020, long call (Leaps 20 $200) would yield 8-10x :slight_smile: You are making me excited! Need to look for THE stock(s)! Still have plenty of time. All my current position are fairly conservative. My position are hedged, control losses but also couldn’t achieve insanely great return, willing to take the chance, this type of opportunity doesn’t come by often.

So far, I have made 50-100% return over a few days for near term far OTM calls for a few stocks including FB but the capital deployed is $500-$1000, so nothing much to brag about.


#1960

Read this small book (if you get chance). First published in 1923, Reminiscences is a fictionalized account of the life of the securities trader Jesse Livermore. Despite the book’s age, it continues to offer insights into the art of trading and speculation.

Reminiscences_of_a_Stock_Operator

He understood the pattern and invincible during his times. Stocks are same even today, but with algorithms and computers.

Which stocks that have fell a lot and you are very confident (anything over 80% probability) that would establish a new ATM? ==> Most of them recovered. We should have done on 12/24 or 12/26 not now


#1961

Still far away from ATH :slight_smile: TSLA is the wrong stock… not that far down from ATH.
AAPL recovered 16.5% of the drop, so still got 83.5% to go.
NVDA recovered 19.3% of the drop, still got 80.7% to go.
MU recovered 23.6% of the drop, still got 76.4% to go.
FB recovered 30% of the drop, still got 70% to go.


#1962

It is actually reverse, TSLA is better than AAPL with current status.

If AAPL pre-fundamentals are same as post-fundamentals, your assumptions are right. Unfortunately, pre-was 93B sales, post is 84B, naturally Apple will never hit the ATH $232 until it comes up with $93B sales.

TSLA pre-fundamentals are less than current fundamentals as lay offs are expense reduction, future gains…


#1963

AAPL fundamentals can improve drastically once there is a China deal. Don’t listen to the mass media, is all about China, ignore all the f… reasons they cite.


#1964

Best bet is the one with the smallest market cap.


#1965

To make $500k with a 10x within 1 year bet, you need $50k. Which one has the highest probability of success?
This is a highly risky trade, so have to be prepared to lose them all.
Do you have a 100x within 1 year bet? $5k is very acceptable to throw away :slight_smile:


#1966

China deal…waiting under tree expecting fruit will come on its own…Long shot…with our famous Trump

TSLA is soon from Monday onwards…going after results…Very short bet. Chances of TSLA going to 325 plus is higher than chances of going down $275 minus.

You will see in next 30 days…


#1967

There’s no question in my mind that TSLA will blow past $400.


#1968

And then crash all the way to $100. :smile:


#1969

By?

Ok if that is the scenario. Good enough for a long call bet. Not if it goes down FIRST, ok for shares but disastrous for calls.