FinTech: V MA PYPL SQ SOFI CHIME NU AFRM UPST MQ HOOD Plaid Stripe Adyen

Last week, Chamath favorite crashed. Today UPST :rocket: Still down a lot from ATH :upside_down_face:

Really? Bought 1000 shares… Chartwise, extremely bearish i.e. in Stage 1.

Apple (ticker: AAPL) doesn’t aspire to be a bank, but it’s pushing deeper into financial services, aiming to generate extra income while keeping its one billion-plus iPhone users hooked on the Apple ecosystem.

Longer term, if Apple succeeds in building a full-scale digital wallet, it could also be another killer app embedded in the company’s two billion installed devices, keeping consumers buying more hardware, software, and other services through the sheer convenience of having it all in one place.

:moneybag:

Hedging my bets with SQ and SOFI.

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Keep :rocket: because…

Many reasons why CEO sells but there is only ONE reason why he buys.

SOFI vs UPST

He chose SOFI :+1:

Disclosure: Added 1000, now holding 2000 shares :hugs: worth about $10k

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Hopefully. According to experts, banking is about relationship… SOFI is working hard on this.
My bet is SQ and SOFI… this two for now, will see how this sector develops… so might not be these twos if more promising Fintech comes along.

Banking is archaic, need urgent re-inventing, either banks re-invent themselves or crypto/ FinTech/ Mega caps would replace them.

:pray:

:pray: :pray:

eBay vs PayPal since spin-off.

Who would have thought eBay stock actually outperformed PayPal?

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Overall I feel there are too many FinTech firms around, and most of them offer broadly the same things. Like what is the difference between Shopify Pay vs PayPal vs Amazon Pay vs Zelle? SoFi has some loan products but where is the tech? All are based on existing bank and credit card infrastructure.

UPST claims to have some unique sauce to evaluate creditworthiness but whether it is better than the good old credit score remains to be seen. Anyway banks’ appetite for loans have significantly shrunk since JPow raised rates to the sky.

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New industry also start this way. Then emerge the stronger ones that would acquire the weaker ones and many fade away. Look around…

Home Depot, Lowe
iPhone, Android
MCD, Burger King
JPM, BAC, C, WFC

After night is day :wink:

SOFI has many tech, read up… eg Galileo

Toll booths :face_with_hand_over_mouth: MA and V :relieved:

Btw, I also think there are many NET alike around yet you are comfortable with NET :person_shrugging:t2:Is because you have made up your mind to invest in NET and not to invest in FinTech. What you are doing is rationalizing your decision.

There is no sure way to determine the eventual winners :face_with_hand_over_mouth:

Mission: Help individuals to achieve financial independence
SOFI = Online bank + online insurance company so no physical presence (overheads).
ST, in order to compete with TBTF banks, behave like regional banks… offer high :grimacing: deposit rates.
:innocent: Haven’t figure out how it is planning to achieve its mission.

I honestly don’t get the SOFI model. They use AI models to evaluate risk and offer customers loans at lower interest rates. Then they also pay higher rates on deposits. Their net interest margin has to be worse. Then there’s the whole issue of their AI model evaluation of risk vs. existing models. We have TONS of data on FICO score and risk. These new risk models work great until there’s a downturn and increase in unemployment. We already know that from 2008-2009 when MBS were repackaged and sold as AAA bonds.

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I also don’t get it. But gen-z and millennial swear by SOFI to be the next TSLA. Super hot with them.

Bot just a starting position. Continue to do more DD to decide what to do :slight_smile: next.

May be can afford a lower margin because using AI and no physical overheads. I am trying to figure out how they can grow to compete with the TBTF banks. So far, feel more like an online regional bank.

AI is expensive to train and run though. I’m skeptical the AI model is cheaper than paying to run FICO scores. I suspect it’s a lot of hype with no substance.

I’m out surprised young people like SOFI. They get easy access to credit with better rates. What’s not to like about that? I think most of these fintech firms will fail the first time unemployment goes over 5% for a sustained period. They got lucky in 2020 because the government helicoptered money everywhere.

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These “AI models” were products of the zero interests rate era when banks competed to lure customers to make loans, because free money were flooding into the banks. Think SVB. They tried to justify making loans to people with no or bad credit history. That never ends well.

I won’t touch these “AI loan model” companies with a ten feet pole. Chances are their models are 1) bad and 2) have nothing to do with AI.

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FOMO buying of SOFI… nearly 60% gain in less than 2 weeks. Power of social media influencers.

SMH.

Screenshot 2023-06-06 at 12.43.01 PM

Influencers sold out of SOFI after pumping for months. Cover their asses by claiming they are bullish LT.


SOFI

4 eras of bank services. Currently in bank 3.0. Future is bank 4.0.

Bull case for SOFI based on fundamentals.

IMHO, SOFI is in Intermediary degree (multi-week) wave iv as depicted below…
Max decline for wave iv.(a) is $8, if go lower, my count is invalidated. Walking the talk, I bot into SOFI that I have sold below $8 (yes, I am an idiot) that I have bought for less than $5… then I was thinking is completion of Minor degree (multi-day) wave (1). $10.23 could be completion of wave (1)… tentatively label as wave iv… will adjust if necessary according to next 1-2 week price action.