For all you Hillary supporters, How will her tax plans effect RE?

I know she wants to raise cap gains rates and increase the estate taxes for people with $3.5m and more. How will the taxes affect BA RE?

Let me pull out my list of Hillary tax hikes: a $350 billion income-tax increase in the form of a 28 percent cap on itemized deductions (without lowering personal tax rates); a more than $400 billion “fairness” tax hike in the form of a 4 percent surcharge on high-end earners; and the “Buffet rule,” which would establish a 30 percent minimum tax on earners with adjusted gross incomes over $1 million.

Clinton also proposes to increase the estate-tax rate to a range of 45 to 65 percent and reduce the exemption to $3.5 million.

Remember, estate taxes are already hit once by the income tax and again by the capital-gains tax. Here Hillary would end the stepped-up capital-gains tax basis and instead value the gain all the way back to the initial transaction.

One of my favorite economists, Scott Grannis, calls this legalized theft.

Hillary also would raise the capital-gains tax to over 40 percent, unless gains are held for more than six years; cap various business deductions (without lowering the corporate rate); and install some sort of “exit tax” for corporate earnings overseas (which are overseas to avoid the high corporate rates she will not reduce).

Then there’s her proposed tax on stock trading, her attraction to a payroll tax hike, her endorsement of a steep soda tax and 25 percent national gun tax, and her openness to a carbon tax.

If this list does not constitute across-the-board tax hikes, I don’t know

Only 1% of people with enough assets pay the estate tax. It’s a headline grabber to appeal to her base that won’t change anything. Will capital gains rate matter when the first $250/500k on homes is exempt? I doubt they’d get rid of 1031 exchanges too.

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Trump is scary…But Hillary and her pandering to Bernie supporters is scarier…Her tax plans will hopefully never see the light of day. Her plan to extend long term gains to 6 years could cause a recession by delaying economic activity…She has constantly lied about tax relief to the midle class…In fact she has no idea who is in the middle class…

Do you think she’all do anything she’s promising? People talk about congress obstructing Obama. It’ll be 10x worse with her. Don’t forget the same rich people that backed Bush and Obama are backing her. She’ll talk tough and do nothing.

Look at the Wells Fargo hearing. They talk tough, but most of them take campaign money from Wells Fargo. The people on that committte have their campaigns financed by the banks they allegedly watch. The consumer protection board was completely asleep at the wheel. We are just now hearing about this when they were notified about it in 2011. That’s the new agency that’s supposed to protect us from evil banks. All it did was create more government jobs for politicians to hookup friends and family of donors with jobs.

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I hope you are right.?Besides she is rich, too, now. .She is pandering to Bernies berners…they may or may not support her…But once she is elected she owes them nothing…


Income and wealth inequality is destroying this democracy. You see what the Trump people are mad about? Part of it is good old racism but another big part of it is they seeing themselves stalling or moving back but all the “elites” are racing ahead.

You can’t just lecture them to study harder, to work harder, and wish them away. They ain’t going away. And these people vote too. Hopefully Trump will go down in flames. But there will be more Trumps down the road.

If you ask me, can I pay 10% more taxes and in exchange make sure people with pitchforks don’t show up at my doors? I’d gladly pay up.


I don’t disagree with increasing wealth inequality. However, our solutions don’t work. You can look at all our social program spending since the 70’s. It has skyrocketed as a percent of GDP. How much as the poverty rate moved? We’ve tried top tax rates of 90% to 35%. Taxes average 17.5% of GDP. Higher rates don’t get us more tax revenue.

Just look at California vs. Texas. California has everything the liberals promise will eliminate income inequality. Yet, we have far more of it than Texas. We have more poor and more millionaires.

People always look at it as-if it’s a single variable equation. There are MANY variables. People talk about tax cuts and how much they “cost”. We’ve had 4 major tax cuts since WW2. Every single time tax revenue was higher after the cuts. GDP growth went from 2.4% the year before the cuts to average 4.2% the 3 years after the cuts.

It was far easier to be middle class before the government got involved in student loans and mortgages. All they’ve managed to do is cause MASSIVE inflation in those 2 areas and trap the middle class under huge piles of debt.

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The 10% more in taxes you volunteered wont help them at all…Trumpers want protectionism and get rid of all immigrants and minorities…It is not about the money…Trump is leading a cultural crusade…Bernie is doing the same on the left. .hopefully the middle holds on…or there won’t be any taxpayers left…

The government is too big to meaningfully move the needle and change things. It is all overhead. We need to go back to the republic model, and give individual states more power and control.

When I lived in Norway, I paid 40% taxes, and I didn’t mind at all. I could easily see the benefits – free healthcare, free day care, free college, generous safety nets, a great public bus system (that even the wealthy rode), protection and subsidies for local industries. All very tangible benefits.

Now that I’m in CA, I pay the same tax rate, and what do I get…? A caltrain that doesn’t even stop at the airport. Pathetic.


Whatever they do, stop the hicks! What I am saying is I don’t mind paying some protection money. If it doesn’t help we need to do something else.

Globalism is in trouble all over the world. It’s the same with Brexit. People voting to leave and then Googled what the heck is EU.

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Norway works because it is small and homogeneous. .Most work and pay their taxes…The US is huge and most people are not contributing…many are just working the system. Even Trump pays no taxes and brags about it. …At some point taxpayers will revolt…Part of the problem is people don’t like how their tax money it spent…It feels just like a protection racket…money for special interests, meanwhile infrastructure is ignored. …


That is true. The way to make the Norway model work in the USA is to go back to a republic, and give more power/control to individual states, operating at a smaller scale. The inefficiencies of a government increase exponentially with size. The bigger a government, the more removed the “representatives” are from the people they purport to represent.

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Yes, 100% right. 99% of people voting against 1% is well known !

Believe it or not, the 1% gets richer and richer. Even if there is 100% tax system comes, richer will know the way around !


Most of the investors, including me, here may get hit by raising taxes.

IMO, Trump losing this election is set in stone already.

Nothing, even next two debates, is going to change Hillary Win !

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Yeah, Norway’s population is less than the bay area. The population is also homogenous. I’ve researched Finland more just because I worked with someone from there. College is free but they only have a few percent more college educated than the US does. Just because it’s free doesn’t mean everyone goes or can go. You still have to qualify for admission.

The worst part about the national level is how bills get passed. Few would pass on their own merit. So they throw in incentives to get votes to pass it. The whole country ends up paying to fund things that only benefit residents of whoever extorted the most pork spending to get the bill passed. That is completely ridiculous. It’s why the approval rating of congress is at all-time lows, but a lot of them get re-elected. On a national level, I hate when other representatives/senators get spending that only benefits their own people. However, their own people think it’s great and will re-elect them. That’s why we have such a spending mess.

Globalism is in trouble, because it’s eroded the standard of living for the low-skill workers. Low-skill work now seeks the lowest cost place it can be done. The high-skill people gain, because they now have far more customers for their skills. Just look at what’s app. A few guys in the US wrote an app that dominated messaging in Europe. Without free trade, each country would have developed it’s own app. The addressable markets would be small, and it wouldn’t be worth $17B. Instead, a few highly skilled people used trade to make a ton of money. Meanwhile, more low skilled work is leaving the US. A median US income is in the top 1% of the world. Is the median American in the top 1% of the world intellectually? There’s no justification for our median salary being so high, and it’s going to head lower with globalization.

It’s popular to blame greedy companies for outsourcing. However, corporate profits consistently average about 7% of revenue. People never discuss the role the consumer plays in all of this. Companies outsource in response to consumers wanting lower prices. Once one company does it to lower costs, then all the competitors have to follow. Most consumers aren’t going to pay more, because something is made in the USA. This leads to more and more outsourcing as consumer expectations of price change.

I think globalization and software are very deflationary. Labor is moving to lower cost which makes items cost less. Software makes companies more efficient, so they can execute with fewer employees. Those are major deflationary forces. We may be in for low inflation and low interest rates for a long-time. It could take decades for the worldwide labor market to consolidate on cost where companies can’t seek lower cost labor. We have a long way to go where software can allow companies to reduce headcount.


Unless of course voters revolt and put up trade barriers again. We already saw it happen in Britain. Brexit means there will be more barriers between GB and EU. Trump is tapping into that vein.

That’s why we need to do a better job taking care of the low skill people. We can’t wave them away. We are in the new Gilded Age. How did we resolve the massive imbalance in the last Gilded Age? We went to war.

At a less scary level, voters can put up regulations that drastically rein in Silicon Valley, like what they did 100 years ago to rein in the big banks. Wall St has been a symbol of evil, maybe the next symbol of evil is Big Tech. Already in SF there is a lot of resentment against Big Tech. It can spread. It probably will.


I feel is a good thing. Free us from the curse of eating the forbidden apple. However, people are used to working. Now that they are not working, what should they do? Socialize! Play sports! R&D! Space exploration!

Time to unload SFBA’s RE?

Not yet. As Soros said, it’s good to buy during the bubble. Just need to keep a watchful eye on events. RE is slow moving. There will be plenty of obvious warning signs if things are turning bad.

SFBA RE, only time to unload is when you need money, otherwise NNNNNOOOOOOOO.

My take on this:

Pref 1) Buy good locations, preferably SFH with large lot.
Pref 2) If you need good cash flow, go for 4-plex, large size and large lot.
Pref 3) Condos/TH are fine as long as low cost, good location.

Flipping mainly for builders or similar kind of business people