RI as a percent of GDP has been sluggish recently, mostly due to softness in multi-family residential. However, both single family starts and new home sales have set new cycle highs this year.
Also, look at the relatively low level of RI as a percent of GDP, new home sales and single family starts compared to previous peaks. To have a significant downturn from these levels would be surprising.
Housing tends to be a leading indicator. The depth of the '08 recession was so great that we still have quite a long runway until we get near the level of the last few peaks. We are still far away from a recession.