RI as a percent of GDP has been sluggish recently, mostly due to softness in multi-family residential. However, both single family starts and new home sales have set new cycle highs this year.
Also, look at the relatively low level of RI as a percent of GDP, new home sales and single family starts compared to previous peaks. To have a significant downturn from these levels would be surprising.
Housing tends to be a leading indicator. The depth of the '08 recession was so great that we still have quite a long runway until we get near the level of the last few peaks. We are still far away from a recession.
Don’t understand the relevancy of the data to BARE which have near zero new construction.
Since existing sales are existing stock, the only direct contribution to GDP is the broker’s commission. There is usually some additional spending with an existing home purchase - new furniture, etc. - but overall the economic impact is small compared to a new home sale.
In other words, RI of BARE is in a secular downtrend regardless of price trend.
