High End SF Market Alive And Well

Nice house, but I would think this sticks out from the rest of the block with its more classically designed homes. Didn’t stop the overbidding apparently…

But all your neighbors are looking down on you. Literally.

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Cleaning dirty money is back?

Market trend?

Well, I am def on the sidelines for now and just holding cash reserves just in case an inside deal comes up as they often do. Wifey is the sound of reason as she feels we have more than enough for a couple with no kids. She’s right, or eyeing that Mercedes convertible…:wink:

I just threw that analysis out there. .Hard to decipher. …The only interesting thing is tge differnce between counties…year old…The poster was agonizing about the trend. …But here we are one year later and the market is still going up…Analysis of historical data is not a guarantee of the future. .? Any one with some better tea leaves?..I am more bullish on the exburbs…

I think we all agree the long term prospect of Bay Area real estate is excellent. The only quibble is short term ups and downs.

So I am not too concerned whether I bought it at the bottom or the top. The bottoms and the tops are just short term bottoms and short term tops. Even if someone bought at the 2007 peak she would still have come out ahead today.

My strategy is to buy as soon as I have enough down payment money. I don’t want to time markets. Tops and bottoms are only obvious when you look back. As long as cash flow can more or less cover PITI why be too concerned about short term market directions?

If you ask me does it matter if I bought at the top or at the bottom? Of course it does. But the key point is: NOBODY KNOWS FOR CERTAIN AT THE MOMENT. We are all guessing. Some lean on the bullish side, some lean on the bearish side. I choose to lean bullish.

Message me if you need a step-son to inherit your wealth :).

[quote=“Elt1, post:6, topic:108”]
Analysis of historical data is not a guarantee of the future. .?
[/quote]Character of SFBA has changed drastically since 1990s. We could be near equilibrium. Higher RE prices and higher annual rate of appreciation, 6-8% instead of historical 4-6%.

Long term is unpredictable. Next few decades is likely to be UP.

[quote=“manch, post:7, topic:108”]…Tops and bottoms are only obvious when you look back. As long as cash flow can more or less cover PITI why be too concerned about short term market directions?
[/quote]In a down market, that may not be true. For example, bought now, cash flow cover PITI. Next year downturn, rent drops drastically (worse would be vacant for months), cash flow is now less than PITI. How to manage?

Rent will drop drastically only if the local economy implodes. So major part of the optimism for Bay Area real estate rests on its economy. Rent may drop below PITI, yes, that’s definitely a possibility. Hopefully you have enough funds to cover the shortfall.

Or if you want extra wide margin of safety, pay enough down payment now to lower the PITI payment. If rent today is more than $1k above PITI, I highly doubt rent will go down that far even in a major recession. If that happened, we are in a major depression and better find a cave to hide.

I read somewhere that rent drops by half after dotcom bust.

Found this chart in some random Medium post

Rent did drop 40% in the dot com bust. But the Great Recession? Reaction was surprisingly muted.

I have to admit, it is kind of sad that I don’t have any kids to give what little I do have to. I do need to talk to a retirement expert and go over the finances to see when I can retire. Time to enjoy ourselves more. Some of my friends have retired early and they seem to be having fun.

Retired at 44 years old :grin:

Wow, sweet hanera. Uh, I think I should be asking you if you need a step-son…

Market conditions today are closer to Dot Com than Great Recession. Check out the NASDAQ. Rents and luxury market were hit hardest for Dot Com. I think that is likely to happen again this time.

I suppose it depends on what exactly you own, but I certainly wouldn’t want to own a high end condo right now in many markets…