History tells us what may happen next with Brexit & Trump

Now the ultimate bear case of Trump, written back in July after Brexit. As we just had our own much bigger Brexit I see we can at least think about this scenario.

My point is that this is a cycle. It happens again and again, but as most people only have a 50–100 year historical perspective they don’t see that it’s happening again. As the events that led to the First World War unfolded, there were a few brilliant minds who started to warn that something big was wrong, that the web of treaties across Europe could lead to a war, but they were dismissed as hysterical, mad, or fools, as is always the way, and as people who worry about Putin, Brexit, and Trump are dismissed now.

I think I have written somewhere else. We are now in our own Gilded Age II. Inequality is rampant and rising. The anger in rust belt USA can be phrased as they being stuck neutral while we the coastal elites are charging ahead.

How did the first Gilded Age end? Not very well. First came Great Depression, which we had a smaller version in the Great Recession. Then came WW2.

Could this time be different? I am not betting on it. But based on my very lousy betting record that doesn’t say much. :slight_smile:

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