Housing Bubble Talk

Buffet sold at the bottom?
Time to buy a beach house in Laguna Beach

You can buy and sale any things from cash. Its best for you.

I’m not sure what is correct or wrong so this is not an advice but just someone’s opinion so everyone do your due diligence.

Following is some comment by a guy, who has been reasonably accurate on housing pricing prediction.

Prices always fall September though March, then Rise April through August. This is the seasonal cycle. Ignore it, all the experts are not really smart enough to know this. From 1994 to 2006 Real Estate went up 12 years straight. It really will take a lot to knock this up-trend into a down-trend because all the major home builders laid off 74% of their employees and as a result we are 4 million homes under-built (I have been watching the new home sales per year). Prices cannot fall because the foreclosure supply just ran out and demand is still greater than supply. It typically takes 5 years for the builders to catch back up (The major home builders take 1 year of planning just to buy the land).

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Huge shortage of housing where the jobs are . But it costs more than people can afford to build sfhs in CA coastal cities. So people either build and buy condos. Or the trend toward renting will accelerate.

So actually prices can fall if buyers just keep renting.
If they cannot afford to buy they will hunker down in lower cost rentals and vote for rent control

In the Sacramento suburbs like Eldorado Hills new homes cost $1m. So even where land is basically free, builders can’t sell anything for less than $300/SF.
Only affordable for families making more than $200k

Written in 2007 :scream:

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There was dip during dot.com burst too, but it was ignored.

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In SV, the dip is very deep, recall my realtor said is 30% over a few months and H1Bs left by plane loads. Essentially forced and panic selling of houses.

You’re right… Although we’re down 10% already(without a recession) but just based on Tax benefit withdrawalI(IMO) from high cost cities. Dot com dip was 10% according to this graph.

Having said that this graph shows SF Bay area up by 80% 2012-2017, while it’s up around 200% at least in the areas I am following, so there is a disconnect somewhere.

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Chart tend to smooth the line :hugs: average over a year is probably 10% :grinning: wild swings of prices within the year though :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

Let’s not forget that mortgage rates have gone up so that needs to be factored in big time…

Sam Zell managed 4000 apartment when he went to college. By the time he graduated from law school, he already own 100-200 units outright.

Smart people go to college to meet people. They don’t need to graduate before they can achieve a lot more than other people in their lifetime.

Basically they don’t need college to teach them how to become a billionaire. They can teach the professors but most professors are not smart enough to accomplish

“ Zell was born in Chicago to a Jewish family, the son of Ruchla and Berek Zielonka. His parents were Jewish immigrants from Poland, where his father had been a successful grain trader.[2][3]They emigrated to the United States with their young daughter, Leah, via Tokyo just before the German invasion of Poland of 1939.[4][2][5] Soon after arriving, his parents changed their first and last names, becoming Rochelle and Bernard Zell.[2][6] They then moved from Seattle to the Albany Park neighborhood in Chicago where his father became a jewelry wholesaler.[2] When he was twelve, the family moved to Highland Park, Illinois where he graduated from Highland Park High School.[2] In 1963, Sam graduated with a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Michigan, where he was also a member of the Alpha Epsilon Pi fraternity.[2] While in school, Zell managed a 15 unit apartment building in return for free room-and-board and was soon managing the owner’s other properties.[2]Joined by his fraternity brother Robert H. Lurie, he won a contract with a large apartment development owner in Ann Arbor who was impressed with Zell’s knowledge of what students wanted. By the time he graduated with a J.D. from the University of Michigan Law School in 1966,[7] he and Lurie were managing over 4,000 apartments and owned 100-200 units outright.[8] After school, he sold his interest in the management company to Lurie and moved to Chicago.[2][9]

Career”strong text

Real estate is a get rich slow game. Sam Zell’s networth is only 5B currently, 50 years after graduation from law school.

If communists like to hate rich people, they should hate stock rich since stock is a place to get rich quick. They should spare landlords since landlords are hard working and only make a little bit when they provide housing to tenants.

Did I say that before?

Can you don’t quote Jewish successful story? We already know Jews are very smart. Please quote some successful non-white hispanic and black (pure, no white blood) billionaires :slight_smile:

Btw, Jews comprise about 3% of US population.

Oprah Winfrey, 3B

“ Her first job as a teenager was working at a local grocery store.[48] At the age of 17, Winfrey won the Miss Black Tennessee beauty pageant.[49] She also attracted the attention of the local black radio station, WVOL, which hired her to do the news part-time.[40] She worked there during her senior year of high school, and again while in her first two years of college.”

She is not a pure Black.

Winfrey history

Oprah is black, she has DNA proof. She has 0% European ancestry

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