Housing markets in the Bay Area, Austin and Seattle are close to a downturn

I posted this for entertainment purpose only. I don’t believe any analysis with the phrase “smart money” in it. What is smart money? The hedge funds that consistently sucks compared to straight forward S&P ETF?

How can they say surging volumes? Volumes are low. Also, construction is high?

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The real estate bull is tired in the BA…the exburbs are still boomiing…But they will be the last gasp…The party may be ending…But there are always deals that beat the system. And if you are buying for the long haul, 10 years or more, then the fluctuations will seem minor in the future.
There is no way the builders can over create supply…Maybe there is a glut of overpriced condos in SF but the sfh market has very little new construction even in the exburbs…
If and when prices drop, it will more like 2000-2002 than in 2008-2009

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Uh, oh, some shade is being thrown on Austin, @hanera…


@hanera, it’s time to sell all those Austin rentals and 1031 exchange them into BA properties…

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I hope is true. According to my realtor and some Indian friends, prices plunged over 50% for a couple of months as plane loads of H1Bs leaving SV but only to recover sharply thereafter. I’m ready to grab those 50% dropped in price SFHs in SV, bring it on.

In my neighborhood, houses stay on market @10 days. Current Zillow price(not sure how true it is) is 12.5% up in 1.5 years.

So, I’m not sure where the 50% price drops are.

You’re Johnny come late, happened in 2000-2001.

Ah got it, you’re talking about how things were in the past few recessions.

50% drop? That would’ve been nice! But that happened in 2008. Didn’t happen in 2001 and I don’t think will happen again in our lifetime.

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The decline for 2008 is persistently declining. Fortress, 15%-25%; faraway neighborhoods declined by as much as 90% (verified with your realtors). Whereas in 2001 is down sharply, re-bounce strongly, then slow climb up… heard of kangaroo bounce? So, if like 2000-2001, grabs fast, blinks and if you miss it; if like 2008-2011, takes your time.

I think you don’t know because you’re monitoring those Chinese dominated neighborhoods, the kangaroo bounce happened in neighborhoods dominated by Indian H1Bs. Now, scout out those neighborhoods and be ready.

I believe the high-end took a decent size hit in 2001. I’ve seen homes in Cresent Park, Atherton, Los Altos Hills that were down 25%+ when resold in 2002.

Sounds good, I’m ready! I’ve always wanted to buy into the “fortress” (esp. Palo Alto). Do notify me when price drops 50%.

Here are the Historical USA home ownership rates (Point is probably there are more high quality owners today, compared to recent recessions)

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