Housing Red Flags

Zero hedge = zero credibility


Well, that may be true but other outfits have also mentioned one or two of the red flags cited in the zero hedge article.

Here, how’s bloomberg?


Who else buys at auctions? ? Arent they all investors? …all that counts is the unemploymentrate and the fact that we have restrictions on supply

I am going to say it is the impact of those darn flipping houses shows that is the cause of all this. Every Tom, Dick and Harry thinks they can buy any house, go with an open floor concept by just magically removing a wall (whether or not it is a load bearing wall of course) and voila have a beautiful home that they can flip for twice paid. Wrong!!!

What’s the right way then?

Well, you proceed as you have always done which is cautiously, but because you are a veteran you are not going to duke it out with newbies who may be inclined to overspend. Continue to look for undervalued properties in up and coming areas. Even if there is a slight overall market downturn, chances are those areas will recover in the LT and you should be fine. The rents commanded in those East Bay cities appear to be fairly good as quoted here by others so I would continue to look in UC, Newark and my fav, Fremont. The tech companies should survive fine as everyone needs their products/services, so as long as they are in expansion mode an easy target would be that peninsula area and across the bridge where it is relatively cheaper. I still believe techies are cheap and will not want to spend that much on rent so they will look to the east side if it is not a bad commute especially. Why not? No kids and gobs of money to spend on things preferably not called rent.

There you go people. FB is serious about Newark :slight_smile:


The one million dollar study will include the corridor between Alameda and San Mateo counties, the adjacent communities Redwood City, Menlo Park, East Palo Alto, Newark, Union City and Fremont. The study will also look at the transportation connections to Palo Alto and other jurisdictions in Santa Clara County. It will focus on mainline improvements to State Route 84/Dumbarton Bridge and the Dumbarton rail corridor, as well as the arterial and highway networks that feed these areas on both sides of the Bay.

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See, REAL money advice is dispensed here 24/7…

Good job, @RealEstatebull!!!

Did you pick up any Newark property yet?

I didn’t have a chance to survey Newark with that realtor yet but I understand the area around the Lakes is good??? Or, I was told that…

@sfdragonboy nah, looking for a primary residence, newark will be a good investment long term. Not for my immediate needs!

Lakes area is close to Ardenwood and the probably the best in newark.

Did not know there are rail tracks on the bridge… interesting. :slight_smile:

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Interesting. I drove through that bridge for a few months and never notice the tracks either.

This looks like nice location to walk to lake & park but maybe not so much for investment: https://www.redfin.com/CA/Newark/5031-Abbotford-Ct-94560/home/2002995

Not bad for investment though. Just did a quick look around via Street View:

Looks like a 3/2 1500ft Newark house rents for around 3k and the going rate is around 650K. Cashflow will be slightly negative. I think it’s a pretty good bet that area will have some “catch up” appreciation and value will go up at a faster than average rate.

A realtor who knows all of UC, Nework, etc mentioned the Lake area to me. Said those homes will go easily to 1.2-1.3M once FB has expanded. Gents, what do you think?

Take me under your wing.

Based on a couple of homes I see in that area, they are already at 1 or 1.1mil mark.

Maybe this union city one might have better value with decent elementary: https://www.redfin.com/CA/Union-City/31330-Mackinaw-St-94587/home/586673

Attractive primary residence but not sure as an investment. Probably makes more sense to go with those 650K ones.


I am thinking multi units (in the 2-4 units space) may be an even better play…

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I’d only consider multi-fam if that’s the only way to make the cash flow number work. It’s less desirable compared to SFH and the market is not as liquid. For Newark and Union City I don’t think you need to go multi fam. Numbers work just fine with plain old houses.

The UC commute to N SJ is brutal, and there’s a lot of tech there. I think there’s more tech there than PA.